Many international organizations and leading security experts have expressed grave concerns about the emergence of a new world disorder that poses direct threats to the Global South, President Xi Jinping’s global initiatives of development, security, civilization and governance, and particularly China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Recent developments vividly reflect this disorder, marked by naked power politics, unilateralism, economic protectionism, and attempts to contain China. The reported US actions and threats against Venezuela, Cuba, Brazil, and Iran exemplify a world order driven by coercion rather than rules. In this environment, BRI projects are likely to face growing pressure beyond 2026 across Latin America, the Arabian Gulf, Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, and the Asia-Pacific.In South Asia, Afghanistan has once again emerged as a hub of international terrorism, gravely affecting Chinese investments and strategic plans. Targeted attacks on Chinese workers and investors—particularly those involved in mining and infrastructure—have raised serious alarms. These developments challenge China’s vision of transforming Afghanistan from a war economy into an economy of connectivity, productivity, and participation.BRI’s prospects in Afghanistan appear increasingly fragile due to clandestine alliances involving regional and extra-regional actors. Alleged links between RAW, TTA, TTP, Israeli-affiliated networks, and militant groups such as BLA, MB, FS, and IS-KP have intensified security risks. These evolving threats necessitate a strategic reassessment by Chinese policymakers, including the diversion of financial and logistical resources toward safer and more reliable corridors—particularly under CPEC Phase 2.0—to safeguard regional and global supply chains.Iran presents another critical challenge. Ongoing large-scale protests across more than 100 cities pose short- and long-term risks to Chinese investments under BRI.
Any externally driven regime-change scenario would be devastating for regional stability and for China’s long-term economic plans. Moreover, the imposition of additional tariffs on Iran’s trading partners threatens to marginalize China’s vision of a sustainable Middle Corridor. With Chinese investments in Iran estimated at over US$420 billion, the need for contingency planning and a viable Plan B has become urgent.In Central Asia—particularly Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan—incidents involving terrorism, the killing of Chinese workers, and attacks on Chinese companies have raised serious concerns regarding the continuity of BRI projects. At the same time, emerging arrangements such as the US–EU–Japan-backed C5+ framework and the US-led C5+ partnership have introduced new strategic constraints. These developments are likely to undermine the security and viability of Chinese investments in the region beyond 2026, further strengthening the case for accelerating CPEC Phase 2.0.South Asia also presents mixed prospects. In countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives, worsening socio-economic pressures, shifting geopolitical alignments, and India’s growing hegemonic ambitions have slowed the pace and scope of BRI. These trends threaten China’s long-term strategic interests. It is therefore imperative for China and Pakistan to jointly develop a comprehensive and coordinated roadmap to operationalize CPEC Phase 2.0, countering external pressures and ensuring sustainable regional connectivity.
The US President’s threat to withdraw from dozens of UN-affiliated organizations adds another destabilizing dimension, with serious socio-economic and geopolitical implications for the Global South and for China-led development initiatives, particularly the BRI.Despite these challenges, the BRI remains a historic achievement. Over the past decade, it has evolved from a vision into the world’s largest international cooperation platform, with unparalleled geographic reach. However, the emerging world disorder seeks to encircle China’s economy, industries, investments, and supply chains, posing structural challenges to the initiative.
The BRI remains aligned with the goal of building a global community with a shared future. Yet the world is undergoing transformations unseen in a century—changes that directly affect China, the Global South, and the sustainability of the BRI.Comparative studies show that the BRI has provided the Global South with a tangible pathway out of poverty and underdevelopment since 2013. According to the World Bank, BRI infrastructure projects have increased trade among participating countries by 4.1 percent and raised GDP in low-income countries by 3.4 percent.
From 2012 to 2021, the GDP share of emerging and developing economies rose by 3.6 percentage points—an outcome that underscores BRI’s developmental value. Nevertheless, growing anti-China narratives and strategic countermeasures demand serious reassessment.
The evolving world disorder is unstable, fragmented, and largely rules-agnostic. It undermines Xi’s global initiatives and threatens the BRI through contested narratives, regional disparities, fragmented technological ecosystems, and emerging battlefields involving rare earths, critical minerals, semiconductors, AI, and digital infrastructure.
The broader geopolitical landscape reveals deepening governance failures, erosion of multilateralism, widening geopolitical rivalries, and selective adherence to international norms. These dynamics weaken shared prosperity, global economic stability, and efforts to build a law-based international order founded on sovereignty, equity, and inclusive development—particularly beyond 2026.Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, and other regions, combined with the paralysis of the UN Security Council, breakdown of arms control regimes, and weaponization of emerging technologies, demonstrate the collapse of the old order without a viable replacement. This volatility threatens China’s macroeconomic stability, digital transformation, AI-driven modernization, and BRI-led connectivity.
The strategic weakening of Central Asian Middle Corridors—due largely to sustained Western pressure on Russia—raises further concerns, especially with the emergence of initiatives such as the C5+US Rare Earth Partnership. Meanwhile, selective humanitarian responses and double standards in global crises further erode trust in the existing order.
The Global South’s refusal to align fully with Western positions on Ukraine, Gaza, and Venezuela reflects widespread dissatisfaction with power-based diplomacy and normative inconsistency.
In conclusion, Chinese policymakers must adopt heightened vigilance and deeper regional engagement to protect BRI investments and projects amid the emerging world disorder. Pakistan—China’s iron-clad partner with unmatched geographic and strategic advantages—must play a central role in this effort. Together, both countries should fast-track CPEC Phase 2.0 by launching mega projects in digitalization, AI, green technologies, hybrid agriculture, quality industrialization, modernization, and trans-regional connectivity to ensure resilience, sustainability, and shared prosperity in an increasingly turbulent world.
