IN an earlier scholarly assessment, Professor Kate Sullivan de Estrada, Director of South Asian Studies at the University of Oxford, envisaged India’s future trajectory as that of a declining state.
Her analysis stands in sharp contrast to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s repeated claims that the Hindutva identity of India constitutes an “asset” in managing foreign relations. Since assuming office in 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government under Modi has aggressively pursued the idea of a Hindu nation rooted in the ideology of Hindutva; an agenda that has fundamentally challenged, and arguably dismantled, the secular foundations of the Indian state.Many international observers and Indian scholars agree that during Modi’s first five-year tenure, the BJP successfully altered India’s secular character. With the commencement of his second term in May 2019, Modi and his core team moved swiftly to consolidate power and implement the remaining agenda of the BJP and its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The 2019 general elections were conducted under the pervasive shadow of Hindutva nationalism that enabled the BJP to initiate far-reaching constitutional changes.
One of the most consequential steps was the unilateral and illegal revocation of the special status of Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, downgrading it from a state to a union territory. This decision was accompanied by an unprecedented security lockdown, communications blackout, and curfew, effectively placing millions under siege. The move not only violated international norms but also exposed the coercive character of the Indian state under Hindutva-driven governance. Similarly, the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in 2019 institutionalized religious discrimination by excluding Muslims from the ambit of citizenship protections. This legislation, combined with the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC), triggered nationwide protests involving Muslims, students, civil society groups, and other minorities. Rather than engaging in dialogue, the state responded with repression. Members of the RSS and ABVP violently attacked students protesting at leading universities.
The imposition of Hindutva ideology and the subsequent constitutional amendments have pushed India into a state of political delusion. A country of over 1.4 billion people is now governed by an unconcealed majoritarian agenda rooted in exclusion and division. Professor de Estrada argues that all major indicators of India’s power trajectory acquisition of material capabilities, recognition by established global powers, and the cultivation of like-minded followers have been systematically undermined by Modi’s leadership. The widespread protests, particularly led by India’s youth bulge, reflect an attempt to reclaim the country’s lost nationhood, pluralism, and secular identity. Economic indicators further reinforce the argument of India’s decline. Despite official claims of rapid growth and major power aspirations, the last eleven years of BJP rule have witnessed a noticeable slowdown in economic performance. In contrast, the Congress-led governments under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh achieved sustained and higher growth rates. For six consecutive quarters, India experienced declining economic growth, according to international assessments. This stagnation has resulted in job losses, rising unemployment, and growing social discontent. The absence of innovative fiscal policies has further exacerbated the economic malaise, undermining the material foundations necessary for major power status.
In the defence sector, often regarded as a key indicator of national power, India’s performance remains unimpressive. Despite possessing one of the world’s largest armed forces, approximately 1.4 million personnel, India remains heavily dependent on foreign arms imports. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is the world’s largest importer of weapons, with arms imports increasing by 24 percent between 2008–25. This reliance highlights the underdevelopment of India’s defence industrial complex and raises concerns about declining professionalism within its armed forces. India’s international standing has also suffered considerably. Once celebrated as the world’s largest democracy, India now faces growing skepticism from the global community. Religious discrimination, suppression of dissent, and authoritarian governance have eroded its democratic credentials. A clear dichotomy exists between India’s external rhetoric and its internal practices, creating discomfort among major powers and international institutions. The Hindutva-driven policies are fundamentally at odds with liberal values, democracy, and globalization; the cornerstones of the contemporary international order.
Regionally, India’s hegemonic ambitions have alienated nearly all its neighbours, creating a hostile strategic environment along its borders. South Asian states increasingly view India as an aggressive and ideologically driven power rather than a responsible regional leader. Globally, condemnation is mounting over India’s treatment of minorities, including Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, and even Dalits, who constitute nearly 17 percent of the population despite being Hindus themselves. Despite securing a third consecutive term in 2024, the BJP government continues to intensify its exploitation of religious and ethnic minorities. Under the banner of Hindutva, the Modi regime appears determined to transform India into an exclusive Hindu state, leaving minorities with the stark choice of forced assimilation, marginalization, or loss of citizenship. Such policies are rendering India increasingly unacceptable, not only internally but also within South Asia and beyond.
To divert attention from internal decay and external criticism, India’s frustrated leadership has increasingly resorted to aggressive rhetoric and actions that threaten regional peace, with potentially global repercussions. It is therefore imperative for the United Nations and the international community to remain vigilant and critically assess India’s conduct and ambitions. Under the combined dominance of the BJP and RSS, India is no longer on a path of ascent; rather, it is rapidly evolving into a declining state; politically, economically, and morally.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
