Afghanistan’s Stubborn Defiance of Regional Stability

Tania Wafa
Tania Wafa

Few foreign policy challenges facing Pakistan are as persistent or consequential as its relationship with Afghanistan. Despite a shared history, geography, and deep societal linkages, the two neighbours have remained trapped in cycles of mistrust and tension. Developments across the western border routinely spill into Pakistan’s internal security and economic environment, making Afghanistan not a peripheral concern but a central factor in Pakistan’s stability.

The roots of this troubled relationship run deep. From Afghanistan’s early opposition to not only Pakistan’s emergence as a sovereign state but also to the Durand Line, mistrust has been institutionalised from the outset. Pakistan considers the border a settled international boundary, while Afghanistan continues to view it as a colonial-era imposition that divided ethnic and tribal communities. This disagreement has never been purely territorial; it carries political and emotional weight, shaping perceptions and obstructing sustained normalisation.

The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 marked a new phase in relations but failed to resolve underlying structural problems. The central question remains whether Afghanistan can develop a political order capable of controlling armed groups and preventing militancy from spilling across borders. Militant organisations operating from Afghan territory, most notably the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), continue to strain Pakistan’s internal security and bilateral ties, reinforcing concerns that Afghan soil is being used to destabilise Pakistan.

In response, Pakistan consistently chose negotiation over confrontation. Senior officials, religious scholars, tribal elders, and intelligence representatives engaged Kabul in sustained dialogue, culminating in the Doha negotiations mediated by Qatar and Turkiye. The Doha understanding was explicit: Afghanistan would not allow its territory to be used for terrorism against Pakistan. Yet, despite formal commitments, Kabul failed to translate assurances into action. The collapse of these efforts was not due to a lack of Pakistani engagement but to Afghanistan’s refusal to curb militant groups operating openly from its soil.

Regional dynamics further complicate the relationship. Afghanistan has become an arena for competing interests involving China, Iran, Central Asia, India, and Western powers. For Pakistan, a stable Afghanistan offers opportunities through trade, regional connectivity, and economic integration linking South and Central Asia. Instability, however, imposes heavy costs. Prolonged conflict or rigid ideological governance in Kabul risks turning Afghanistan into a long-term security and diplomatic liability for the entire region.

Pakistan’s decision to keep its embassy open after 2021, assist evacuations, and advocate internationally for Afghan economic relief reflected a clear commitment to stability. This goodwill, however, was not reciprocated. Instead of honouring Doha commitments, the interim Afghan authorities allowed the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army to maintain sanctuaries, reinforcing Pakistan’s conclusion that Kabul lacked either the will or the capacity to act responsibly.

Afghanistan must reassess its assumptions. Any belief in Kabul that tolerating or facilitating militant groups can weaken Pakistan is fundamentally flawed. Pakistan has the capacity to manage these threats independently and will continue to do so. Continued militancy will only further destabilise Afghanistan and deepen its regional isolation. Verified intelligence assessments and United Nations reports confirming militant camps and supply networks inside Afghanistan leave little room for denial.

A durable reset in Afghanistan–Pakistan relations therefore demands responsibility . Pakistan has demonstrated patience, restraint, and good-faith diplomacy, while Afghanistan has repeatedly failed to reciprocate. Ultimately, Afghanistan must choose between constructive engagement with Pakistan and policies that perpetuate instability. Geography, economics, and regional realities make Pakistan indispensable to Afghanistan in ways no distant partner can replace. Only by prioritising long-term stability over short-term manoeuvring can this historically adversarial relationship move toward regional peace rather than recurring crisis.

—The writer is a freelance columnist. [email protected]

Get Alerts