WHILE Biparjoy had severe effects on the Indian State of Gujarat where it made landfall, its impact on Pakistan is minimal. In Sindh, the storm killed four people, injured five, partially damaged 2,460 houses, and destroyed 190 houses, even though an estimated 1.2 million people were exposed to winds speeds up to 74 miles per hour. But Cyclone Biparjoy is a warning sign to Pakistan. It is a storm of tremendous dimensions. It was an extremely severe cyclonic storm before it made landfall and it is the longest-lasting Arabian Sea cyclone on record. But unusual cyclones like it are now the norm in the Arabian Sea.
Historically, cyclones were rare and generally mild in the Arabian Sea. But in recent years, their size, duration and frequency has been picking up. And so, in recent years, there have been a slew of alarming tempests in Pakistan’s backyard. The Arabian Sea had 5 cyclones in 2019, including super-cyclone Kyarr, cyclones Nisarga and Gati in 2020, Tauktae and Shaheen in 2021, and now Biparjoy in 2023. But these storms, by and large, steered clear of Pakistan. In the last several decades, cyclones only occasionally made direct landfall on Pakistan’s shores. That is why, on the record, cyclones are among Pakistan’s more minor natural hazards.
We have to realize, however, that this is a game of chance. Cyclones can travel through the ocean on any random path and their destructive power is usually concentrated in a small area at the centre of the storm. That means that if a cyclone makes landfall with its eye over a major city, the destruction and loss of life it causes can be vastly greater than if the same cyclone made landfall a hundred miles away in a coastal area sparsely populated by fishing villagers. The impact of a cyclone is a question of which location it lands in, not just how powerful the storm is. Hurricane Katrina in 2005, one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the United States, was only a Category 3 when it landed, not exactly of monumental strength. But so much carnage resulted from Katrina because it, unlike nearly every Atlantic hurricane in history, happened to make landfall exactly where an extremely vulnerable city was, New Orleans. Pakistan also has a spot that, if landfall occurs here, carries potential for catastrophe – Karachi. It is one of the biggest cities in the world, with tens of millions of people crammed together into a small space. Its density of industry and infrastructure also creates endless opportunities for hazards to arise, and its infrastructure is highly vulnerable to being damaged, such that even light winds and rain like what Biparjoy just brought to Karachi can cause a few buildings to collapse. The last time Karachi was ever in the eye of any storm was way back in December 1965. It is not even certain that it was a cyclone, but it was either a windstorm or a low-pressure remnant of a cyclone the US Navy reported in the Arabian Sea earlier. While the tally of deaths was not recorded very well, it is thought that 10,000 people in Karachi died because of the storm. And this was back when Karachi was far smaller than it is today. Since then, Karachi has been brushed by cyclones many times, and many Arabian Sea cyclones also travelled north on course for Karachi before suddenly changing directions and many cyclones made landfall near the Gujarat-Sindh border, very near Karachi. We can be fairly certain it will not be long before a powerful cyclone does make a direct hit on Karachi, either while heading straight inland or while travelling parallel to the coast. If it has the strength of Biparjoy or Tauktae, there could be tens of thousands of deaths, and if it happens to be a super-cyclone like cyclone Kyarr of 2019, the consequences could be unimaginable. Whatever the case, it is only a matter of time before Karachi ends up in the eye of a storm, and that could easily become one of Pakistan’s biggest disasters. For now, we have something else to worry about, the 2023 summer monsoon season, and Biparjoy may be a bad omen for what we have to face. One of the ways the storm is unusual is that it formed so late in the pre-monsoon season, in June, and the reason is unusually warm temperatures in the Arabian Sea at this time of year. Now, this phenomenon also has the ability to intensify monsoon rainfall in Pakistan. Indeed, in 2010, the Arabian Sea was abnormally warm at the beginning of summer, and there was both a powerful June cyclone in the Arabian Sea, Phet, and Pakistan’s epic floods in July and August. If there is a link between high Arabian Sea cyclonic activity in June and powerful precipitation in Pakistan in subsequent months, then Biparjoy might be one sign that the upcoming monsoon season will be disastrous like it was last year, when 33 million Pakistanis were affected. We need to take the possibility seriously. Putting adequate preparations in place can greatly alleviate the impact of any natural hazard.
—The writer is Director at Pakistan’s People Led Disaster Management.
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