Muhammad Usman
IT was an inauspicious moment for a military, United States is banking on to help keep an expanding China in check. The aerial clash, the first by the South Asian rivals in nearly five decades was a rare test for Indian military and it left observers a bit dumbfounded. Its loss of plane last week to a country whose military is about half the size and receives a quarter of the funding, was still telling”. This was an unusual outburst by New York Times in aftermath of Indian false flag operation over Balakot but by no means an overstatement. It was an explicit reality check for US policy makers and an implicit resounding tribute to Pakistan defence forces which exposed real Indian worth to all and sundry, in broad day light on 27 Feb 2019 with marksmanship and clockwork precision.
For reasons best known to themselves, US policy makers continued to sleepwalk. They kept relying on pretending India in pursuit of their vital objective to contain China despite its inglorious past and shoddy present to discharge an oversize role. Indian history is of servile submission, acquiescence and subservience, not of mastery and preeminence. It could never hold itself against the superior or even the equal. Its track record is of only bullying the weak. It is mind boggling that how US continued to place reliance upon a country like India to challenge a rising giant, China. however, US is lucky to witness very early ugly end of its strategic misconception at Ladakh with Indian humiliation by Chinese forces with sticks and fists only, never seen before in contemporary times. This has surely upset its apple cart to thwart China’s outward advance to the world economically. Notably, US strategic partnership with India was 3D. One, Indian strategic bidding in Afghanistan to help pressurize Pakistan to achieve its ulterior motives in the region. Two, to spur India to threaten CPEC passing through Gilgit-Baltistan in guise of its alleged claim over the territory. Three, Quad; a grouping of US, Japan, India and Australia to contain growing Chinese influence in Indian and Pacific Oceans. This was also stated by US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo during a policy address at Washington “the Quad will prove very important in the efforts ahead, ensuring that China retains only its proper place in the world”. Over last two years, military engagements among its member states have broken new grounds.
Due to resolute Pakistan’s aversion to Indian strategic bidding, fear of retribution from Afghan Taliban and importance of Pakistan for peace Afghan talks, inevitably, US has to cut back Indian role in Afghanistan. Now it is of tactical level only. Without fear of any doubt/contradiction, on CPEC, Indian role is far from its potential nevertheless, probably in order to bridge some credibility gap between its claim and capability, India made some tactical moves in Ladakh area. To its chagrin, these boomeranged as of a bomb that exploded on its face. The Chinese response was unambiguous and awesome. Indian response was inverse of it. Total lack of will was conspicuously obvious from Indian civil leadership to military leadership. As expected widely, India collapsed there like a house of cards and meekly sought disengagement at Chinese terms. This is not its first display of cowardice. This is second time. This is confirmation of what India endured ignominiously at the hands of China in 1962. Both times, an outright humiliation was reserved for India. In 1962, being first time, India did not only escape the ramifications but also pocketed massive military aid, rushed in by the West to buttress its military capability against China which was then an international pariah. Now its fallouts are inescapable for India. Similarly it is a rude awakening to its patrons/supporters worldwide. For their own sake, they need to carry out reappraisal about India, incapable of undertaking a role in a great game. After South Asia, Indian role in Quad is also now suspect.
With Pakistan’s befitting response to Indian adventurism in February 2019 and recent Indian capitulation at Ladakh, Indian threat in region is greatly minimized. On one side, China has demonstrated its acknowledged supremacy over India. On the other side, Pakistan has also shown full resolve not to misjudge its apt and robust retaliation. Precisely, this was the reason that this time, India did not dare to indulge in extravagant venture which has been its enduring habit to divert attention of its domestic audiences from its failure elsewhere. Reportedly, China and Iran are set to sign $400 billion investment pact for 25 years. This is also a bad news for US which has signalled a cold war with China in context of BRI. The South Asia is its mainland, being an area in which its flagship project, CPEC passes through. All these developments portend well for Pakistan but could impel US as an alternative, to crank up pressure on Pakistan to drag its feet on CPEC. The feeble economy is its soft underbelly particularly, the international debts. US still commands predominant influence over international lenders. On its behest, they could twist arms of Pakistan majorly to cave in. Here, China ought to come in a big way financially and over a long haul to rid Pakistan of such pressure. This would not only bail out Pakistan but would also enhance its credentials for a future superpower. So far this is an area where China is lacking considerably.
— The writer, a retired Lt Col, is freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
