ON 30 July 2026, Mohsin Naqvi stood up at the Pakistan Economic Summit in Islamabad and said what most Pakistanis already mutter while they wait in line. The system we are living under has collapsed. It was a minister saying it out loud. He talked about a reset. New provinces. A state closer to its people. Then on 12 November, in Lahore, he did something rare in our politics. He handed the question back. He called a referendum the best solution. If the people say new provinces should not be created, then I am with the people, he said. Anyone can draw a new map. Very few people in power ask the country first. There is an idea under discussion to reorganise Pakistan into 12 provinces, with a nationwide referendum before any possible 28th Amendment. According to The News, Punjab would be split into four, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan into three each, and Sindh into two. No boundaries have been finalised. No process has been finalised.
The politics have already started moving. Khawaja Asif has backed new provinces on administrative grounds, not ethnic or political ones. On 2 November, MQM Pakistan announced a nationwide movement, with a rally toward Sharae Faisal on 29 November. On 12 November, Muhammad Ali Durrani launched a movement from Multan for Bahawalpur, South Punjab and Hazara. That same night Naqvi flew to Nawabshah and met President Asif Ali Zardari, reportedly about new provinces and a referendum. Naqvi kept referring to surveys in Lahore. He was right to do it. The Meridian National Barometer 2026 spoke to 5,000 citizens between 12 October and 4 November. It found 77 percent support for additional provinces, up from 54 percent in 2022. Sindh led at 80 percent, then Punjab at 78, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 75 and Balochistan at 72. A survey is not a referendum. You can argue with a survey. You cannot argue with a ballot box in the same way.
There is a simple reason this debate will not go away. Our population has grown more than sevenfold since 1951, to around 260 million. We still run the country on four provinces. Punjab alone is bigger than all but twelve countries. We expect one chief minister in Lahore to govern more people than live in Japan, using a deputy commissioner system inherited from colonial rule and barely changed. This is not an argument against Punjab or Sindh. It is an argument against distance.
Now the part nobody should hide. A referendum on its own cannot create a province. Under Article 239(4), a bill changing a province’s limits cannot go to the President unless that province’s assembly passes it by two thirds. For a 12-province plan, that means 248 of 371 votes in Punjab, 112 of 168 in Sindh, 97 of 145 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 44 of 65 in Balochistan, plus two thirds in Parliament. On 3 September, the Sindh Assembly unanimously rejected division. There is no shortcut here.
You cannot talk about new provinces without talking about three old wounds. Bahawalpur joined Pakistan on 3 October 1947, the first ruler to do so. It had provincial status. Then, under One Unit in 1955, it was merged into West Pakistan. For people there, this is not a new demand. It is a restoration. The Hazara movement goes back to 1957. It turned violent in 2010, when the old North West Frontier Province was renamed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Seven people died in protests in Abbottabad, Haripur and Mansehra. South Punjab has argued for decades that a separate setup would bring fairer development and budgets.
So what should happen now? First, publish the question. Put one clear question before Parliament under Article 48(6). Should Pakistan create smaller administrative units on administrative grounds to bring government closer to the people? No map attached. Principle first. Second, publish the money. The NFC award gives the provinces 57.5 percent of the divisible pool, and Article 160(3A) makes that a floor. Twelve provinces would divide the same pool. Show the costs and the savings from proximity. People will not sign a blank cheque. Third, take everyone into confidence. Nawabshah should become a habit. Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta, Bahawalpur, Abbottabad. Fourth, let the 29 November march stay peaceful, and let the referendum answer it. Fifth, if the people say yes, go to Parliament. If they say no, stand with them.
Pakistan has had plenty of men who wanted to redraw its map. Very few wanted to ask its people first. Put the question to the people. Publish the costs. Respect the Constitution. Heal Bahawalpur, Hazara and South Punjab by vote, not by veto. And if Sindh says no, respect Sindh. A federation that forces a province to divide stops being a federation. The 77 percent are waiting. Ask them.
—The writer is former Regional Executive Inclusive Development at NBP, Mirpur AK.
