From mineral resources to Pakistan should prioritise research, innovation and local expertise
Dr Yasir Arafat
A visitor to one of China’s modern battery factories would understandably be impressed by the automated production lines, sophisticated machinery and extraordinary scale of operations. Yet the most valuable lesson for Pakistan lies beyond the factory walls. China’s transformation into the world’s leading battery manufacturer was not simply the result of purchasing advanced equipment or attracting investment. It was the outcome of years of deliberate industrial planning, scientific development, expanding domestic demand and, perhaps most importantly, learning how to compete.
Only two decades ago, Japanese and South Korean companies led much of the global lithium-ion battery industry. China was still developing the expertise needed to compete with established manufacturers. Today, the position has been largely reversed. According to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2026, China accounted for more than 80 per cent of global battery-cell production in 2025, approximately 85 per cent of cathode-active-material production and over 90 per cent of anode-active-material production used in electric-car batteries. Electric vehicles also represented more than half of new car sales in China during the same year.
These achievements deserve close examination as Pakistan prepares to host the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum (PMIF) in Islamabad on November 12–13. With growing international interest in our mineral resources and renewed enthusiasm for battery manufacturing, the temptation to emulate China’s industrial success is understandable. But copying the visible results of that success without understanding the process behind them would be a costly mistake.
China recognised early that manufacturing capacity could not expand sustainably without a market for its products. In 2009, it introduced the “Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles” programme, encouraging electric buses, taxis and government vehicles at a time when private consumers remained hesitant. Financial incentives, tax exemptions and supportive regulations followed. According to the IEA, electric-vehicle sales increased from fewer than 20,000 in 2013 to more than 300,000 by 2016. As demand grew, manufacturers gained the confidence to invest, improve their products and progressively reduce costs.
There is an important lesson here for Pakistan. Our industrial ambitions often begin with announcements of investment, production capacity and proposed manufacturing facilities. Far less attention is devoted to establishing whether sufficient customers exist to sustain them. A battery factory, however sophisticated, cannot remain competitive without dependable demand. Pakistan’s growing interest in electric motorcycles, three-wheelers, public transport and renewable-energy storage offers encouraging possibilities. These markets should be assessed carefully and developed through commercially sound pilot projects rather than optimistic forecasts alone.
China’s second achievement was to make manufacturing efficiency a source of competitive advantage. Modern lithium-ion batteries demand exceptional precision in chemical processing, electrode preparation, cell assembly and quality control. Small variations during production can significantly affect battery performance, durability and safety. The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 estimates that higher manufacturing efficiency accounts for more than 40 per cent of the battery-production cost difference between China and Europe. This finding challenges the familiar assumption that inexpensive labour is sufficient to establish a competitive manufacturing industry.
Pakistan certainly has access to capable engineers, scientists and a relatively affordable workforce. Yet battery manufacturing requires more than technical qualifications and labour availability. It demands experience, specialised testing facilities, industrial discipline and continuous improvements in production processes. Having worked on battery performance, degradation and safety, I have found that understanding why a battery fails can be just as important as knowing how it is manufactured. Such expertise cannot be acquired merely by importing production machinery. It must be developed through research, experimentation and sustained collaboration between industry and universities.
China’s experience also demonstrates that technological leadership is closely connected to mineral processing. Despite relying on international sources for substantial quantities of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other raw materials, China established a commanding position in refining these resources and converting them into high-value battery materials. Its industrial strength lies not only in access to minerals, but in the technological capabilities developed around them.
Indonesia provides another instructive example. According to the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2025, Indonesia produces more than 60 per cent of the world’s nickel and attracted over $50 billion in greenfield mining investment between 2014 and 2023. Chinese investment has helped develop a substantial refining industry there. The experience illustrates how mineral resources can attract industrial capital, although the extent to which technological expertise and long-term economic benefits remain within the host country deserves equal consideration.
For Pakistan, the immediate priority should be to understand which mineral resources can realistically support competitive industries. Reliable geological assessments, metallurgical studies and commercially viable processing routes must precede ambitious manufacturing commitments. Not every mineral occurrence constitutes an economically recoverable deposit, and not every refined product can meet the demanding specifications of battery manufacturers. Equally, Pakistan need not possess every raw material domestically to participate profitably in selected stages of the battery supply chain.
There is also a danger in assuming that China’s present industrial model can simply be reproduced. China built its battery industry with an enormous domestic market, substantial financial support and decades of accumulated manufacturing experience. Pakistan operates under very different economic circumstances. Moreover, the global battery market is already highly competitive. The IEA reported that worldwide battery-cell manufacturing capacity exceeded three terawatt-hours in 2024, roughly three times the combined demand from electric vehicles and battery storage that year. Establishing new production facilities without a clear commercial advantage could therefore expose investors and the wider economy to considerable risk.
A more realistic approach would be to identify industrial activities where Pakistan can gradually develop specialised capabilities. Battery-material processing, battery management systems, performance testing, safety engineering, recycling and energy-storage integration offer opportunities worth serious evaluation. Some may be commercially feasible sooner than large-scale cell manufacturing. Others could become viable as domestic demand and technical expertise develop. International partnerships, particularly with established Chinese manufacturers, could accelerate this process, provided they contribute to genuine local learning and long-term technological development.
India’s experience is also relevant. Its production-linked incentive programme, with an allocation of ₹18,100 crore, seeks to establish 50 gigawatt-hours of domestic advanced-chemistry-cell manufacturing capacity. The initiative reflects the importance neighbouring economies are placing on battery technologies. Yet ambitious targets and financial incentives are only the beginning; their success must ultimately be measured through operational factories, competitive products and sustainable commercial demand.
The forthcoming PMIF presents an opportunity to look beyond the familiar discussion of mineral wealth and foreign investment. Pakistan needs a coherent industrial strategy that connects credible resource assessments with processing technologies, market requirements, scientific institutions and commercial partnerships. Such an approach would allow investment to be directed towards activities that offer genuine prospects for industrial growth.
Above all, we must resist measuring progress solely through the number of agreements signed or factories inaugurated. The more meaningful indicators will be whether Pakistani engineers can improve the technologies they operate, whether our laboratories can support internationally competitive products and whether domestic enterprises can establish lasting positions in regional and global markets. China’s battery revolution offers Pakistan considerable inspiration, but its greatest lesson is not about the size of its factories or the volume of its production. It is about the patient development of industrial knowledge, technological competence and markets capable of sustaining innovation. Pakistan does not need to recreate China’s battery industry. It needs to understand how China built one. The real challenge is not merely to attract the technology of tomorrow, but to develop the national capability to improve it, manufacture it competitively and eventually make it our own.—The writer holds a PhD in Chemical Engineering from Curtin University, Australia, and an MSc in Mineral Processing and Resource Recovery. He is serving as a Senior Research Engineer at Edith Cowan University, Australia, he specialises in battery and energy-storage technologies and has contributed to ‘The Conversation’ Australia. Email: [email protected].
