The global economy has literally gone into a downward spiral, with oil prices skyrocketing. Brent crude is currently trading at around $101.48 a barrel, while US WTI crude is around $96.65. The world was already struggling with the Hormuz blockade, and in the midst of this comes the Houthis’ attack on Saudi oil facilities and their capture of strategic islands, including Mayyun (Perim) at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb and the Greater and Lesser Hanish Islands in the southern Red Sea, further rattling world markets. Over the last decade or so, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the United States, and Great Britain have carried out punishing air raids on the Houthi rebels. The Houthis have only grown stronger, and essentially there is little that can be done to deter them as they have never been decisively defeated. The fact that they are advancing towards a key maritime choke point, the Bab el-Mandeb, makes the situation very precarious. Iran backs them but does not control them.
This distinction is critical. Their aggression right now may benefit Iran, giving it more geographical leverage. However, their interests and objectives are very different. The Houthis want political dominance, economic concessionand a stop to Saudi Arabian interferencein Yemen. Michael Knights, Head of Research at Horizon Engage, a New York-based strategic advisory, is of the opinion that Houthis are the most committed, the most ideologically pure, and the most aggressive of Iran’s regional allies. They have been developed by the Iranians in a fast-track way.Things that took the Lebanese Hezbollah 20 years to develop, the Houthis have developed in five. The New York Times described the transformation from a ‘ragtag militia’ to an unlikely regional power player.A report by United Nations experts in 2024 documented extensive military ties between the Houthis, Iran, and its other allies. The report estimated that the Houthis had recruited up to 350,000 fighters by 2024, up from just 30,000 in 2015. The recent bold advance has taken the conflict beyond Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It is transforming the conflict between U.S. and Iran. The Houthis’ dramatic rise is another example of weaponized geography.
Threat to Bab el-Mandeb’s closure, becoming a reality has become more consequential because of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. All of this has turned the conflict matrix of West Asia very complex with many calling the war ‘expanding’ and ‘unending’. Blame game has already started with Saudi Arabia disappointed with its allies’ response most importantly the United States of America and the allies blaming the kingdom for a delayed response. But more importantly, nobody wants to become a part of the conflict.
The United States had labelled the Houthis a “foreign terrorist entity” back in March 2025, but American officials have been in direct contact with them, as also confirmed by US Vice President JD Vance. As the Houthis become more aggressive in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia has asked Washington for military intervention. What makes the American position more intriguing is that Washington had initially moved towards military action. Target lists had reportedly been approved, troops were loading bombs onto US warplanes and the strikes were about to begin. Then President Trump pulled back. The United States is therefore not simply choosing not to act. It is choosing, for now, not to intervene against the Houthis even when Saudi Arabia is asking for its direct military support. The question is why.
Washington has instead been talking directly to the Houthis and appears prepared to accept their assurance that American vessels will not be targeted. For Saudi Arabia, this is a deeply unsettling message. It leaves Riyadh to deal with a threat that Washington once treated as part of the wider Iranian challenge.
Interestingly, Israeli officials have leaked details of a secret meeting between military commanders from the US, Israel and several Arab states in Germany last week to discuss the war with Iran. The Axios journalist, Barak Ravid reported that the “private retreat” was organised by the head of US Central Command and was attended by the military chiefs of staff of Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt. And then comes the most interesting twist. Israel, once a target for the Houthis, is reportedly offering to intervene in Yemen on Saudi Arabia’s behalf.
TheHouthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have also placed growing attention on the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye. The Houthis have now issued a direct warning to Pakistan and Türkiye. A senior Houthi political figure, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, said, “By God, if Türkiye and Pakistan become involved, we will strike them with an iron fist.”He added that the Houthis would “teach” both countries a lesson if they joined what he described as Saudi aggression against Yemen.
Under the agreement, an attack against any one of the signatory states will be considered an attack against all parties. Pakistani government ministers and senior military figures have confirmed their “unconditional” commitment to the pact and said Islamabad would go to “any extent” to defend Saudi Arabia. But there is growing tension in Pakistan about being dragged into the never-ending war unfolding across the Middle East. The fact of the matter is that Pakistan can ill afford another direct entanglement. Yet this is precisely where the Makkah pact becomes complicated. An activation of the Makkah pact would also be perceived as Islamabad taking a clear stance against Iran.
The other side of the conflict is even more dangerous and has the potential to turn into a global conflict. The nexus emerging between Russia and Iran, because of its conflict with Ukraine, is not lost on the observers of events. Iran and Russia have deepened their military ties since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Iran has supported Russia with munitions, artillery shells and drones, and Russia reciprocated it at a critical time for Iran with fighter jets and attack helicopters. In 2025, the two countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty aimed at deepening ties over the next two decades. China is offering its mediation to the conflict, but it also bought 80% of Iran’s oil in 2025 and continues to do so despite U.S. sanctions. It is speculated that it’s also providing intelligence and military hardware to Iran. The conflict scenario has all the ingredients of escalation, especially with the very indecisive, emotive leadership in the United States. This is no longer simply a war between Iran, Israel and the United States. Russia and China are now deeply invested in its outcome. The off-ramp is just not happening.
At the United Nations, Russia and China vetoed a US-backed resolution to extend the mandate of the panel monitoring sanctions on Iran. Iran thanked them. The message is clear. The conflict is no longer confined to the battlefield. It is playing out in the Security Council, in energy markets and across strategic alliances. And then comes the another interesting development. Saudi Arabia asks China for help against the Houthis. China turns to Iran and asks Tehran to use its influence to rein them in. Is Beijing becoming the new Washington?At the end of the day, diplomacy should win. As this piece is filed, what happens on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations General Assembly session is far more important.May be it is the last chance for diplomacy to work, for many think that post the US mid-term November elections it could be an all out war.
