AS mediators are making fresh efforts to revive the process of dialogue to prevent further escalation in the ongoing war in the Gulf, President Donald Trump has threatened on Sunday that he had entered a critical decision phase in the ongoing war with Iran, cautioning that major developments would occur if Tehran failed to change its conduct. He described his current options as wiping the country out, allowing it to “rot” economically or negotiating a deal, adding that “very big things are going to be happening in the not-so-distant future.”
It is not for the first time that the US President was talking about in terms of annihilating an entire civilization but his latest remarks will surely add to the confusion about the fate of the diplomatic process or use of extreme options in the face of growing desperation to bring the costly war to an end. His warning comes in the backdrop of reports Trump intends to consult regional countries on the next steps in the war. In fact, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC’s) joint military command, claimed in a statement on Sunday that the US had been given a “green light” by unnamed regional countries at a joint meeting in Europe to resume action against Tehran. According to state media, the military added that any US attack would lead to Iranian retaliation “without any limitations or considerations” on US bases and interests. Regional countries involved in any US attack on Iran, the military said, should not expect restraint from Tehran’s armed forces and would be considered complicit and parties to the conflict. This shows how Iran will react in case the United States resumes striking targets in the country as has been indicated by President Trump. Iran has already been retaliating by hitting both the US bases and economic infrastructure, especially oil facilities, in the Gulf countries, complicating supply and pricing crisis of oil. Its proxy – Houthis of Yemen – are also engaged in a full-fledged war against Saudi Arabia despite calls by the international community to stop these provocative attacks against Saudi civilian and economic targets. As there are apprehensions that both Pakistan and Turkiye could be drawn into the widening conflict in the spirit of the bilateral and trilateral defence agreements with the Kingdom, Houthis have issued a direct warning to Islamabad and Ankara, threatening a “decisive and painful response” if either country intervened militarily alongside Saudi Arabia in Yemen. It is understood that the response of Pakistan and Turkiye will be determined by the evolving situation and not threats of Houthis. Pakistan has already conveyed in categorical terms that it will go to any extent to support Saudi Arabia in the face of threats to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. And Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty had come under serious attack and that Turkiye, bound by its alliance commitments, stood in solidarity with Riyadh. Pakistan and Turkiye have not publicly acknowledged their participation in the war but this remains a possibility if and when the situation takes any dangerous turn, may be because of mercurial decisions of the US President or continued stubborn attitude of some power centres in Iran, which believe in the policy of penalizing Gulf countries for US attacks in Iran. Iranian rhetoric notwithstanding, Gulf countries especially Saudi Arabia will not want a dangerous escalation in the war as is being indicated by the US President and this is confirmed by the extreme restraint shown by the Kingdom throughout during the conflict. Any escalation could spell havoc not only for the participating countries but also for regional peace and security and therefore, the United States and Iran should respond positively to the fresh efforts by mediators aimed at providing them with face-saving terms.
