THE transformation in the international strategic environment, the increasing probability of state-on-state wars, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, and the resumed exchanges of strikes between Iran and the United States signify the efficacy of military alliances and minilateral security groups. Despite President Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy and predatory strategy, the 2026 Ankara Summit Declaration reaffirmed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) commitment to the collective defense of its member states, as enshrined in Article 5 of the alliance’s Treaty. Nonetheless, political uncertainties within transatlantic relations persist due to Trump’s economic and military threats against NATO members.
The 2026 NATO Summit was held in Ankara, Turkiye, on July 7-8, 2026. Leaders of all 32 NATO member states, five partner countries (Ukraine, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) and the European Union participated in the Ankara Summit. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in his opening remarks at the NATO Ankara Summit, emphasized that the changing security environment, driven primarily by Russia’s war in Ukraine, requires NATO to move beyond defense spending commitments to build credible military capabilities, expand defense industrial capacity and enhance operational readiness. NATO members’ increase in defense spending (to 5 percent of GDP by 2035) to expand the military-industrial base and strengthen deterrence through military modernization and readiness is spiraling the arms race internationally and intensifying the security dilemma for China and Russia. Moreover, the presence of five partners in the Ankara Summit augments the strategic partnership between China and Russia.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkiye, emphasized unity and called for closer cooperation among alliance members to address shared security challenges including terrorism, while President Trump reiterated his desire for the United States to annex the Danish island of Greenland. This overshadowed the narrative of security through unity. Earlier in January 2026, the White House announced that “acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States” and that the options President Trump was considering in pursuit of this goal included “utilizing the US military.” Indeed, the threat of US military operations against Denmark, a NATO member, alarms Europeans and Canadians and has compelled them to develop a new security architecture rather than rely entirely on the transatlantic alliance. Such an alternative security option was articulated by Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany and Emmanuel Macron, President of France, in their speeches on July 08, 2026, that “Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own defense,” and “Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities while remaining firmly committed to NATO’s collective security framework,” respectively.
Realizing that the offensive cult is on the horizon in the international system, NATO members agreed at the Ankara Summit to expand the defense industrial base, accelerate capability development, enhance logistics and supply chains and invest in emerging technologies. They reaffirmed their “unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity’’ and pledged 70 billion Euros in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine in 2026-2027. Moreover, President Donald Trump agreed to grant Ukraine a licensing arrangement to produce Patriot missile interceptors.
NATO did not support the Israel-US invasion of Iran on February 28, 2026 and did not respond affirmatively to President Trump’s call for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had closed during the war. At the Ankara Summit, while calling for greater European burden-sharing, President Trump expressed disappointment that NATO allies had not supported the US during the war with Iran. Similar reservations over the Trump administration’s series of predatory actions (seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, acquisition of Greenland, control over the Gaza Strip, making Canada the US’ 51st state) have been expressed by the European leadership on numerous occasions. In January 2026, President Emmanuel Macron, in his annual address to French ambassadors, criticized the US for gradually turning away from some of its allies and breaking free from international rules. He described and rejected Trump’s predatory strategic policy as a “new colonialism and new imperialism.”
Trump’s renewed remarks on Greenland during the Ankara Summit that the island “should be controlled by the United States, not by Denmark,” and an earlier statement to incorporate Canada as the 51st state underscored that political uncertainties within the transatlantic relationship persist, which raised concerns over the future of transatlantic collective security. Thus, Trump’s transactional and predatory approach in international relations could undermine NATO’s significance in the emerging global strategic environment.
—The writer is Vice Chancellor of the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
