AS mediators have taken a back seat due to the stubborn attitude of the warring sides, there is no indication as yet that the limited or expanded conflict will deliver anything substantial to any side except playing havoc with global trade and compounding economic and financial woes of the majority of the members of the international community. Qatar has publicly disassociated itself from the mediation process while Pakistan apparently stands frustrated due to scant respect to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by both the United States and Iran, which prefer to exchange strikes and initiate strategic moves in their bid to squeeze more from the other side.
It is unfortunate that the United States and Iran are gradually raising the ante despite knowing full well that the use of force will not produce a clear winner in view of the complicated nature of the conflict. This is evident from the fact that both Washington and Tehran have not been able to achieve their goals vis-à-vis the Strait of Hormuz as the goals of its total management and free movement of commercial vessels remains a distant dream. The attempt by Iran to penalize ships and tankers bypassing the procedure imposed by it for navigation has backfired as the United States has not only resumed strikes against different targets in Iran but also re-imposed naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has limited options against the United States and one of them is to target US-run military facilities in Gulf countries, an approach that is causing loss of sympathy for Iran among the international community. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies” on the plea that the renewed US blockade had cut off oil and gas exports to the world, including “America’s economic rivals”, warning regional energy exports are either shared by all or denied to all. Any attempt to choke the Bab-el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea through the use of Houthis in Yemen could reshape the world view of the Gulf war and a major re-alignment. As against this, the US is once again talking in terms of destroying bridges and power plants in Iran. At the end of the day, the parties will, most likely, come to the conclusion that the Islamabad MoU provided them the most appropriate diplomatic off-ramp and adherence to it is the only option for resolution of the issues involved.
