DESPITE contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is among the top ten most climate-vulnerable nations in the world. In response to severe threats like accelerating glacial melt, deadly heatwaves and catastrophic monsoons, Pakistan is undertaking a sweeping legislative and ecological overhaul. As policymakers gather in Islamabad for the Breathe Pakistan International Climate Change Conference over May 6 and 7, the urgency of the climate challenge is undeniable. Yet beyond the speeches and symbolic gestures, significant challenges continue to highlight Pakistan’s limited preparedness to effectively address the impacts of climate change. While the conference at the Serena Hotel’s Sheesh Mahal Hall is being presented as an important step toward national mobilisation for sustainability, the realities on the ground reflect long-standing governance gaps, institutional weaknesses and structural constraints that require sustained and comprehensive action beyond such events.
The latest report by Jinnah Institute highlights Pakistan’s continuing climate vulnerability, where disaster response still outweighs long-term preparedness. The 2025 floods displaced millions and exposed weaknesses in governance, early warning systems and environmental protection. A year later, rising heatwaves, drought risks, water scarcity, river pollution and groundwater depletion continue to strain fragile systems and increase community vulnerability. Karachi reflects the intensifying urban climate crisis. On May 3, temperatures rose to 40.9°C, with a heat index of 46°C, worsening water shortages and power outages across the city. In Landhi, Shah Faisal Colony, North Karachi, Baldia Town and Orangi, residents relied on expensive private water tankers, while protests in Mauripur highlighted growing public frustration. The situation illustrates how climate stress is compounding governance and service delivery failures, turning resilience into a daily struggle for millions.
Rural Pakistan faces escalating climate stress as floods, water scarcity and rising temperatures disrupt agriculture, the main source of livelihoods. Crop failures weaken supply chains and drive food prices higher, disproportionately affecting the poor. Limited access to education, assets and technology, coupled with weak governance, hampers resilience and prevention efforts. The emerging El Niño pattern is expected to intensify vulnerability between May and July, bringing hotter, drier conditions that may reduce hydropower generation, damage crops and increase energy demand. Combined with rising fertiliser and fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions, it threatens food security. Lower farmer margins could reduce input use, weaken yields and accelerate food inflation in import-dependent economies like Pakistan.
Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it is a driver of poverty. A World Bank report warns that unabated emissions could push an additional 43 million people into extreme poverty by 2050. Pakistan, with its large rural population, entrenched inequality and high exposure to floods and heatwaves, is among the most at risk. Already, 108 million people, 42.3 per cent of the population, live below the poverty line. Under business as usual scenarios, this number could rise to 190–200 million by 2050, nearly half the projected population. In effect, every other child born in Pakistan would grow up in poverty, unable to afford adaptation or recovery from climate shocks. The demographic explosion compounds this vulnerability. From 33.7 million in 1951, Pakistan’s population has surged to 242.7 million in 2025 and is projected to reach 380–403 million by 2050, making it the world’s third most populous nation. This growth, coupled with economic stagnation and declining per capita income, creates escalating climate fragility. With GDP per capita projected to fall to $1,200–1,300 by 2050, the poor will have virtually no financial buffer to absorb shocks.
Geography further intensifies the risk. Vulnerable populations are disproportionately concentrated in highrisk areas, lowlying floodplains, marginal farmland and unauthorised settlements on riverbeds and urban peripheries. Data shows that in recent years, 18–26 districts have faced droughts in Balochistan and Sindh, 18 districts glacial lake outburst floods in Gilgit-Baltistan and KP, six districts tropical storms in Sindh and Balochistan and 84 districts floods across provinces. Each district is exposed to multiple types of disasters, ensuring that the poor are hit first and hardest. Despite decades of disasters, Pakistan repeats its mistakes. Encroachment on floodplains continues, communal lands are treated as private profit centres and prevention is dismissed as an expense rather than an investment. Lessons remain unlearned because learning requires confronting entrenched power networks. Top-down interventions have failed to generate ownership while local governments remain weak and underfunded. Globally, bottom-up initiatives led by elected local govts have proven more effective in building resilience, but Pakistan has yet to embrace this model.
Transformative change requires deep governance reform. Land-use planning should be devolved to district level, with zoning laws protecting communal spaces and restoring natural flood buffers. Districts must maintain asset inventories while national policy provides coordination. A proposed National Reclamation Commission could lead reforms, but progress depends on political will. Without confronting elite capture and vested interests, Pakistan will remain in a cycle of crisis response. Early warning systems, stricter landuse rules, protection of wetlands and forests and smarter water management are not new ideas, they are longstanding recommendations that require funding and political commitment. Climate spending must be built into regular budgets, not treated as one off responses. Governance must be strengthened, provincial efforts aligned and local governments empowered.
— The writer is an educator, based in Sindh.
