BRISK activities in the twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi as well as reports emanating from Tehran and Washington speak of a possible peace deal between the United States and Iran in the second round of Pakistan-mediated dialogue. Apart from indications that the technical teams of the two countries were constantly exchanging messages to sort out maximum details before the next round of direct talks, President Donald Trump said on Thursday he may travel to Islamabad if a final agreement with Iran is signed there. There are also credible reports that as a result of brain-storming sessions Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, Chief of Defence Staff (CDF) had with civilian and military leadership in Tehran, the United States and Iran have moved closer to an understanding.
For understandable reasons, there are no official confirmations about finalization of the deal and as to who will be signing or witnessing the landmark event but President Trump’s remarks about a possible visit to Pakistan capital add weight to the possibility of something big happening in a few days. This is also borne out by scaled up security and administrative measures being taken in Islamabad and Rawalpindi including closure of inter-city bus terminals and comprehensive combing operations by local police and security personnel. Regarding progress in behind-the-scenes contacts and talks, President Trump’s claim that Iran has accepted ‘almost everything’ currently under negotiation might be a publicity stunt aimed at satisfying domestic public opinion in the backdrop of furious reaction within the US to the aimless war. However, there are indications that the two countries are interested in ending their hostilities in a face-saving manner. The two-week temporary ceasefire, which went into effect on April 08 is expiring on 22 April and President Trump has expressed confidence there will not be a need to extend it as, according to him, Iran was keen for a deal. The US itself seems to be desperately looking for a deal as highlighted by its efforts to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon. In fact, Lebanon ceasefire was included in the original understanding between Iran and the United States but Washington had a second thought due to Israeli designs to squeeze maximum in Lebanon. The Lebanon ceasefire is seen as a key precondition for Iran’s continued engagement in talks with the United States, with Tehran insisting that any agreement must include a halt to hostilities across all fronts. The US brought Israel and Lebanon on the negotiating table and a 10-day ceasefire has been agreed upon to satisfy Iran but the plans announced by the Jewish State not to return to the international border in Lebanon might create problems. All reports say the Iranian nuclear programme and the fate of the enriched Uranium are sticking points in negotiations. Mr Trump reiterated an unverified claim that Iran had agreed to surrender enriched uranium allegedly relocated and concealed after last year’s US-Israeli air strikes. The US President has consistently advocated for a comprehensive deal under which Tehran would abandon its nuclear capabilities in return for sanctions relief and de-escalation. Washington has reportedly proposed a moratorium on Iran’s Uranium enrichment programme for twenty years but Tehran wants a cap for five years and mediators are trying to bridge the difference. As indirect behind-the-scenes exchanges have become instrumental in bringing the two countries closer to an understanding, the US is trying to keep up building pressure on Iran through continued naval blockade of its ports and verbal rhetoric. Such posturing is not helpful when trust level is already very low.
