SINCE US President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, Pakistan’s relations with the United States have been on a positive trajectory.
Pakistani ruling elite’s meetings with President Trump underline that Pakistan has regained its significance in Washington’s strategic calculation. It has augmented its relevance in the regional politics. The Indians seem puzzled due to a shift in relations between Islamabad and Washington, which has brought Pakistan once again to the forefront in both regional and global geopolitics. However, Pakistan faces a challenging diplomatic balancing act amid the Great Powers’ strategic competition. Islamabad must strike a balance between appeasing Trump through diplomatic actions and pleasant gestures, while maintaining its long-term strategic economic partnership with China. Additionally, it must navigate its interests amid the escalating Trump-Putin brinkmanship and the revitalization of the India-Russia relationship, highlighting the complexity of Pakistan’s diplomatic landscape.
Presently, the burning issue in global politics is the “Trumpatomics plan.” President Putin’s frequent nuclear signalling and flexing of muscle have encouraged Trump to refurbish the United States’ nuclear posture. He expressed his resolve to modernize the American nuclear arsenal and implement the Golden Dome missile defence system. To justify the Americans’ colossal spending on nuclear modernization, he claimed that the US strategic competitors have resumed underground testing. President Trump opined that China, Russia, Pakistan and North Korea have resumed underground nuclear testing. He said that these countries conduct tests underground to avoid detection, claiming they test “way underground where people don’t know exactly what’s happening.” This proclamation surprised the non-proliferation analysts. Both the independent arms control experts and the officials of the countries named denied President Trump’s claim. Moreover, the assertion conflicts fundamentally with the capabilities of modern seismic monitoring networks established under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
The literature on the CTBT’s International Monitoring System reveals that its seismic monitoring networks represent humanity’s most sophisticated verification apparatus. It employs four state-of-the-art technologies: seismic monitoring for shockwaves through the ground, hydroacoustic detection of sound waves in oceans, infrasound listening for ultra-low-frequency sounds and radionuclide monitoring of atmospheric radioactive particles. The international scientific community, including American scientists, has a consensus that the multi-layered approach adopted by CTBT’s global monitoring system makes clandestine testing extraordinarily difficult. Since its inception, Islamabad has adopted a transparent nuclear policy. It is grounded on the credible minimum deterrence philosophy. Many analysts misinterpret its full-spectrum deterrence. They argue that the offensive realists’ doctrine influences Pakistan’s full-spectrum deterrence or nuclear posture. In reality, it is influenced by the tenets of defensive realism. Therefore, Pakistani defence policymakers consciously avoid being entrapped in an arms race with India, providing a sense of strategic stability in the region.
The critical examination of Pakistan’s nuclear history reveals that Islamabad was the ardent supporter of the creation of the nuclear weapons-free zone in South Asia (NWFZSA). Even after India’s nuclear explosion on May 18, 1974, Islamabad tabled a resolution in the United Nations Security Council for the NWFZSA. Realizing India’s nuclear weapons ambition, Islamabad chalked out its nuclear deterrence policy and successfully acquired and tested nuclear weapons capability after India’s nuclear weapons tests on May 11 and 13, 1998. Since the overt nuclearization, Islamabad has been advocating for a nuclear restraint regime in South Asia. These developments testify that Pakistan “was not the first to carry out nuclear tests and will not be the first to resume nuclear tests.” The philosophical bedrock of Pakistan’s nuclear posture and evolution of its nuclear program falsifies Trump’s assertion about the resumption of its underground nuclear testing after May 30, 1998. However, Trump’s fictitious contentions about the resumption of nuclear tests have provided an opportunity to India to unleash maligning propaganda against Pakistan’s nuclear program. One fails to understand why the Pakistani ruling elite’s warming rapport during the recent months was unable to prevent Trump from making an incorrect declaration about its nuclear program.
The more astonishing issue is that President Trump did not mention anything about India’s nuclear ambitions. According to the 2025 SIPRI estimates on the world nuclear forces, “India was estimated to have a growing stockpile of about 180 nuclear weapons as of January 2025—a small increase from the previous year.” It added, “While Pakistan’s nuclear warhead stockpile is thought to have remained stable at around 170 warheads as of January 2025.” President Trump’s clubbing Pakistan with China, Russia and North Korea in the nuclear realm could be a serious puzzle for the Pakistani ruling elite. These three states are viewed as strategic adversaries by Trump Administration. Therefore, Islamabad must be vigilant and prepared to diplomatically confront potential nuclear sanctions in the rapidly evolving international strategic environment because the US is too habitual in levying sanctions against Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
