IT looks like Afghanistan underestimated Pakistan’s capacity and resolve by opening a very long front against it from Chitral to Angoor Ada in South Waziristan.
The Afghan Taliban targeted border posts in Pakistan and, in return, received a bloody nose in the form of a robust counterattack. The Afghan ragtag militia could not withstand the onslaught of a modern Pakistani military and suffered considerable losses in both men and material. The Taliban were forced to retreat, abandoning their posts. Pakistani troops went inside Afghanistan and captured about 21 of the abandoned posts.
The friendly ties between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan became strained after the Taliban took over the government in Kabul in 2021. The attacks of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) increased manifold since the formation of the Taliban Government in Kabul. Pakistan entreated the Afghan Taliban at all levels to stop the operations of TTP from its soil against Pakistan as per the Doha Agreement. The Afghan Taliban only paid lip service and refrained from taking any concrete steps against their ideological brothers, with whom they shared their worldview and ideology. After repeated incursions of TTP from within Afghanistan, where they have their bases and sanctuaries, Pakistan decided to strike TTP bases within Afghanistan. This perhaps led to the Afghan regime’s retaliatory attacks on Pakistani border areas.
Coming back to the recent skirmishes, Pakistan, in retaliation to Afghan attacks all over the Durand Line, also destroyed the Asmatullah Kakar military base in Spin Boldak, situated in Kandahar province near the Pak–Afghan border. The base has a lot of strategic value, as it played an important role in the Afghan Taliban’s regaining control of Kabul after the withdrawal of US forces in 2021. The base was also reportedly used by TTP for launching attacks within Pakistan.
The attack and the rendering of this particular base inoperable would be music to President Trump’s ears, as he has shown interest in regaining control of Bagram military base outside Kabul. As far as the casualty figures in these skirmishes are concerned, according to Pakistani sources, about 200 Taliban fighters were killed, whereas Pakistan lost about 20–25 troops. Several Muslim states have publicly shown their concern about the skirmishes. These countries include Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with whom Pakistan has a strategic defence pact. All these countries asked for de-escalation and the start of a dialogue. A dialogue between the Defence Ministers of the two countries and their teams took place in Doha, Qatar. In these parleys, the initial ceasefire of forty-eight hours was extended for the duration of the dialogue.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has released a detailed statement, the summary of which is as follows: Afghanistan should stop allowing its territory to be used by terrorists of all hues to attack Pakistan, especially in KP and Balochistan. Pakistan reiterated that its strikes in Kabul and Kandahar were aimed at terrorist camps, strictly in self-defence. The communiqué further added that Pakistan values dialogue and diplomacy but would resort to any means to protect its citizens and territory. The coming weeks could either see a resurgence of suicide attacks in Pakistan as retaliation or a decrease in such attacks. The decrease could be due to the fact that many bases used by TTP have been destroyed.
No doubt Pakistan has every right, including the military one, to stop TTP attacks from Afghan bases in Afghanistan. But the scenario of Pakistan having tension on both its eastern and western fronts is also not an auspicious one, especially with India smarting from its humiliating loss in the four-day conflict with Pakistan. In order to assuage its embarrassment, India could indulge in any misadventure on the eastern front. We thus need to keep the kinetic operation on our western border as short as possible and quickly move towards diplomacy and dialogue.
The important and complex question is how Pakistan should deal with TTP and the Afghan Taliban. The TTP is an indigenous organization and has to surrender before the State of Pakistan. No negotiations can take place with a band of terrorists. As far as the Afghan Taliban are concerned, Pakistan has to maintain robust defence at the western border, as it has to on the eastern one with India. It has to be made crystal clear to the Afghan Taliban that they must stop providing aid and sanctuary to the TTP. In case these attacks continue, Pakistan would reserve the right to carry out kinetic attacks on TTP bases in Afghanistan.
Pakistan must keep up the pressure on the Afghan Taliban through diplomatic outreach. Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, Iran, Türkiye, the UAE and America can all be involved in these diplomatic activities. None of these countries would like the presence of terrorist groups like TTP, Al Qaeda and IS Khorasan in Afghanistan. The Afghan crisis has indeed assumed a very complicated dimension. Pakistan must be patient and prepared to persevere through highs and lows in the process. In the meanwhile, Pakistan must create awareness among the general population and try to bring them onto one page. Pakistan must also win the hearts of tribal Pakistanis through developmental works and administrative reforms, as the erstwhile tribesmen are our first line of defence.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
