FOR decades, Pakistan’s Afghan policy revolved around the idea of strategic depth.
The belief was that a friendly government in Kabul would allow Pakistan to secure its western flank and extend influence beyond its borders. In theory, Afghanistan was to serve as Pakistan’s ideological and security cushion. In practice, it has become a persistent source of instability, hostility and doubt. Today, the old policy has collapsed. Pakistan faces cross-border attacks from Afghanistan, a surge in terrorism claimed by groups sheltered across the border and growing unease inside its own borders over how to respond. The Taliban regime, once seen as a potential partner, now acts more as an unpredictable neighbour. The dream of depth has turned into a reality of intrusion.
Over the past two years, Pakistan has suffered repeated assaults on its border posts and military convoys. Many of these attacks have been traced to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which operates freely from Afghan territory. The Taliban government’s reluctance or refusal to curb these elements exposes the limits of Pakistan’s influence. For Islamabad, it is a grim irony that the very group once nurtured for regional stability is now providing sanctuary to its enemies. These incursions have turned the western border into a permanent flashpoint. Recent clashes at Torkham and Chaman, followed by a fragile ceasefire, have underscored how volatile the frontier has become. The border fencing, once hailed as a security breakthrough, has not prevented infiltration. Each incident now threatens to escalate into a larger conflict, with both sides accusing each other of violations. The old talk of brotherhood and religious fraternity rings hollow amid artillery fire and growing mistrust.
Complicating this dynamic further is the renewed Indian presence in Afghanistan. India has quietly rebuilt diplomatic and trade channels with Kabul, offering humanitarian aid and infrastructure assistance. New Delhi’s approach is pragmatic, focusing on influence without recognition — but its effect is strategic. An Indian foothold in Afghanistan provides psychological pressure on Pakistan’s western border and undermines Islamabad’s long-held notion of having exclusive strategic space there. Within Pakistan, public opinion has also shifted. In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where much of the violence occurs, there is strong opposition to another large-scale military operation. The people of the province have suffered the worst consequences of the past two decades of militancy and displacement. There is fatigue, frustration and a growing sense that Islamabad’s security policies have not brought sustainable peace. The demand from the local population is clear: defend the borders, but do not repeat the cycle of internal destruction.
Pakistan, therefore, stands at a crossroads. It cannot afford to pursue a policy of naive friendship toward a regime that fails to respect its sovereignty. Yet it also cannot plunge into open hostility that could destabilize the entire frontier. What is required is a careful realignment of policy, one that secures Pakistan’s defence interests without falling into the illusions of ideological kinship. The priority should be border control, counterterrorism coordination where possible and a clear message that Pakistan’s security is non-negotiable. This new approach must be grounded in defence and diplomacy working in tandem. Military preparedness is essential, but it must be accompanied by calibrated political engagement. The Foreign Office and security institutions must jointly develop a framework that ensures border stability, limits infiltration and conveys deterrence without escalation. The policy should not be about trust, but about terms: practical, defined and enforceable.
The regional context adds another layer of complexity. China, Iran and Russia have all opened pragmatic channels with the Taliban regime, seeking access to minerals and trade routes. India is quietly building influence, while the United States maintains distance but watches from afar. In this shifting landscape, Pakistan cannot afford confusion or divided messaging. It must protect its borders, safeguard its internal security and avoid isolation in regional diplomacy. Pakistan’s Afghan policy has for too long been driven by nostalgia and ideological overreach. It is time for realism. The notion of Afghanistan as a younger brother or backyard has outlived its usefulness. Geography binds the two nations, but friendship without respect and reciprocity is meaningless. The new policy must rest on clarity, deterrence and economic pragmatism.
Pakistan’s future security depends on strengthening its own institutions rather than relying on goodwill from across the border. Internal cohesion, disciplined defence and an unambiguous foreign policy are the real strategic depth Pakistan needs. The lesson of the past four decades is sobering: those who sought security in others lost stability within themselves. Today, Pakistan must move from doubt to determination. Afghanistan will remain an unpredictable neighbour, but Pakistan can no longer afford an ambiguous posture. The task now is to secure national interests without compromising on sovereignty or defence. That is not hostility; it is realism and realism is the only doctrine that endures in geopolitics.
—The writer is a senior media academic, former Dean of Mass Communication at Beaconhouse National University and University of Central Punjab, and currently a Professor at the University of Central Punjab.
