Malik Ashraf
AS the Coronavirus continues to take heavy toll of lives across the globe and efforts to develop a vaccine for the treatment of the pathogen are also in full swing, a study in China has detected that the virus has mutated into at least 30 different variations. The study done by Professor Li Lanjuan and his colleagues at Zhejian University of Hangzou concludes, “Medical experts have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, leading to difficulties in finding an overall cure. It could have future implications on the treatment of Coronavirus, as several different strains have been found throughout the world. The US, which has the world’s worst death toll above 50,000 and above 87000 overall cases, has been struck by different mutations. New York, which itself had the worst death rate in the US, and the eastern coast show a strain of Coronavirus similar to that found in Europe, whereas the western US has shown similarities with strains found in China. Corona virus has so far been treated in hospitals worldwide as one disease and patients receive the same treatment regardless of the strain. The defining mutations in different regions may change the way we approach combating the virus. Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take impact of these accumulating mutations into account to avoid potential pitfalls”.
These revelations are indeed very worrisome as different vaccines will have to be developed to deal with each strain of the virus and it could really pose a formidable challenge to the scientists and the medical experts of the world. The countries around the world first of all will have to determine which and how many strains of the virus have affected them and then go for developing the vaccine which could effectively treat that or those strains of the pathogen. It will indeed be a very difficult situation for the developing and poor countries which do not have the state of the art laboratories to carry out the experiments and studies notwithstanding the fact that some of them do have the scientists and medical experts of the caliber found in the developed nations. Their health systems are also not capable of taking the load which is likely to stretch them to their limits with the increase in the number of the affected people. They would therefore have to mainly depend on the assistance and medical treatments developed in the developed countries in regards to variant of the virus affecting them. The study does help to understand why the death toll in the developed countries is so high and why they are struggling to cope with the ever burgeoning situation. Pakistan is lucky in the sense that so far the situation has not attained unmanageable proportions and the projections of 50000 likely afflictions by 25 April have not proved right. But the reality that during the last week there has been substantial increase in the Coronavirus cases amply suggests the direction we are headed to. Prime Minister Imran Khan and medical experts have repeatedly indicated the possibility of the increase in Coronavirus cases in the days to come and the next fifteen days are said to be crucial in this regard.
The dilemma for the countries like Pakistan is that apart from the dearth of medical facilities they are also confronted with the challenge to keep their economies going which are already under tremendous strains and to provide relief to the people who are losing jobs, particularly the daily wage earners. As repeatedly made clear by Prime Minister Imran Khan Pakistan does not have the financial resources to grapple with the challenge without help from the affluent nations and the world lending institutions in case it becomes a long drawn battle against Coronavirus. Pakistan also cannot afford a complete lockdown for the foregoing reasons. It has perforce to strike a balance between keeping the economy going and saving its people from adverse effects of the Coronavirus on their lives besides tackling the spread and treatment of the virus which, under the circumstances, seems quite an arduous undertaking. The decision by the G-20 countries and international lending institutions to defer the debt payments by the developing countries including Pakistan is welcome initiative as it would provide some fiscal space to them to deal with the problem in the short run. However it is not enough in view of the intensity of the problem. As suggested by Prime Minister Imran Khan the required action by them should have been to write of the debts of the developing countries.
The decision by the government to implement smart lockdown and opening certain industries and businesses is the best remedy under the permeating circumstances. The success of this strategy however depends on understanding of the gravity of the problem by the people and cooperating with government in regards to adoption of the preventive measures and observing the lockdown requirements with unruffled commitment. The preferred and inescapable remedy is to contain the spread of virus through strict social distancing. As is said prevention is better than cure. Less people becoming affected with the virus means less strain on the resources of the country and the health system. Nobody really knows how long it will take to contain the virus and find suitable remedies for coping with its different variants. The western scientists engaged in developing the vaccine reportedly are now conducting clinical trial for developing a vaccine and believe that even if a vaccine is developed now it would not be available for treatment till the end of the year. But the new study has surely added to their difficulties. Instead of one vaccine, several vaccines might have to be developed to fight the virus at the global level.
— The writer is freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
