NEEDLESS to say, while Afghanistan—a country accused of harbouring cross-border terrorism into Pakistan, is aligning itself with India, which is also accused of perpetuating trans-border terrorism – aims to diversify its regional relationship, which is a glaring reflection of Kabul’s devious intentions vis-à-vis Pakistan. Islamabad discerns these uncanny developments with great caution as it poses national security threats to Pakistan, particularly in terms of conventional and non-conventional security challenges undermining regional stability. Yet, given the historical incongruities entailed by the Indian relations with the Muslims states in its neighbourhod, the Afghan led- trajectory will ultimately fail.
Understandably, a year prior to the US exit from Afghanistan in August 2021, a nexus between NDS-RAW-TTP-ISIS was formed to destabilize Pakistan. This trajectory is focused on exporting terrorism into Pakistan via TTP’s splinter groups— Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) and Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA) in Afghanistan. Their sole objective has been to restart and expand terrorist activity in Pakistan thereby sabotaging efforts to restore peace and stability in this region. Additionally, India has been accused of supporting separatist movements in Pakistan.
That said, an NDS-RAW-TTP alliance against Pakistan could potentially escalate the threats posed by these organizations. RAW is known for its intelligence operations, while NDS focuses on Afghan national security, and their collaboration might enhance the operational capabilities of regional terror networks, bringing additional instability to the region via 5th generation warfare. The fifth generation warfare nexus —between India and Pak adversaries (envious of Pak military’s rising power, foster their terrorist activities in Balochistan and the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces — is a matter of grave concern for the Pakistani security establishment, already engaged in counter-terrorism and counter insurgencies operations in these provinces.
Notably, the terrorists in Balochistan and KP provinces involve non-traditional tactics aimed at destabilizing these regions. This type of warfare includes psychological operations, social unrest and the exploitation of ethnic and sectarian divides, aiming to create chaos and insecurity within Pakistan. Such strategies are indicative of a shift from conventional warfare to non-conventional warfare.
All the while, Pakistan’s new conditions for engaging with the Afghan Taliban reflect a shift in policy, with a focus on addressing security concerns, combating terrorism and managing the impact of Afghan refugees on Pakistan. The country’s new approach signals a more proactive and assertive stance in addressing the complex challenges emanating from Afghanistan. By launching an attack in Afghanistan in December 2024, the Pakistani government has reaffirmed its stance that it will no longer tolerate Kabul-backed terrorist groups, particularly Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and their malicious activities inside the Pakistan territory. The Pakistani move is a part of an underlying need to coerce the Taliban regime. The said attack is a clear reminder of the consequences of the Taliban‘s actions, exporting terrorism into Pakistan.
Additionally, the Afghan shift towards India can be seen as a great devious game in the region, thereby causing some uninvited consequences for Afghanistan. Mistakenly, the Afghans look for external support or alliances, albeit relying on India, will be an Afghan déjà vu. The Afghans must learn from Bengalis’ experience as their Indian tilt backfires now. A Hindutva-controlled India must be a serious concern for the Afghan community. There are growing concerns that this Indo-Afghan alignment could further strain Pak-Afghan relations and destabilize the region further.
Nevertheless, Pakistan is justified in taking coercive action against the Afghan Taliban due to ongoing security challenges, including threats from terrorist groups operating in the region and the Taliban’s inability to control these factions. Despite previous efforts, reports suggest that Pakistan’s measures have not generated the desired impact, indicating a complex security environment that necessitates a more assertive approach. Though analysts argue that Pak coercive efforts may ultimately be ineffective, the underlying aim of Pakistan’s current military action is to prevent the spillover of violence into Pakistan,
Further, to counter the Afghan-Indian strategy perceived as destabilizing to Pakistan, the country should focus on several strategic measures. These include strengthening intelligence and defence cooperation to combat terrorism in the region, enhancing diplomatic engagements to improve relations and build alliances, and expanding economic ties with regional partners to isolate potential threats. Moreover, Pakistan could work on a comprehensive counter-narrative to mitigate the influence of Indian presence in Afghanistan, which is viewed as an encirclement strategy against Pakistan.
Beyond all that, the most important concern to the international community is that the Afghan local groups, including foreign militant groups that retrospectively relied on the Taliban for safe haven still remain in the country. The logical demand of the situation is that outside powers should resist any Afghan temptation to return to proxy wars or routine drone strikes. They should instead press the Taliban to honour their security commitments and, despite well-founded mistrust, offer modest collaboration on discrete issues. More than 950 Pakistanis, including security personnel and civilians, have been killed in 2024 alone. The Indo-Afghan nexus aims to deepen Pakistan’s political and economic turmoil. Given the complex history of India’s relations with its Muslim neighbourhood, it will be a strategic failure for both India and Afghanistan, to change the political landscape of this region.
In this evolving terrorism situation in the region, Russia and China must be united to weaken the Indo-Afghan terrorist nexus in order to counter regional terrorism as both Moscow and Beijing view the rising instability in Afghanistan, a major threat to their security, particularly the Uyghur East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is gaining a foothold in Afghanistan, profoundly affecting its Xinjiang region. China-Russia’s shared concern can lead to collaboration to curb the Indo-Afghan terrorist activities profoundly affecting regional security dynamics that undermine their strategic interests in Central and South Asia. Similarly, Washington’s security concern cannot be ruled out regarding the resurrecting threats from Al-Qaeda –ISIS presence in Afghanistan.
—The writer, based in Pakistan, an independent IR & International Law analyst, also an expert in Conflict and Peace Studies (with special focus on Palestine, Kashmir), is member of European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR), including the Washington Foreign Law Society/American Society of International Law. He also deals with the strategic issues.
