GLOBAL warming stands out as a worldwide issue with significant implications for Pakistan. The 21st century has introduced a new set of security challenges that go beyond traditional military threats. According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, Pakistan ranks as the 8th most vulnerable country to long-term climate risks, having faced devastating environmental disasters such as the 2010 monsoon floods and the unprecedented 2022 floods, which affected 33 million people and displaced nearly 8 million. Climatic catastrophes impact all aspects of national stability, including water and food security, economic growth, and social harmony. Failure to address these issues raises serious concerns about the country’s ability to cope with such challenges.
Despite having some of the world’s greatest glaciers, Pakistan faces acute water shortages. Per capita water availability has fallen from 5,260 cubic meters in 1951 to only 1,000 cubic meters in 2016. The impact of climate change, combined with poor water management and limited reservoirs, have worsened the situation. Water scarcity is more than just an environmental issue; it also threatens social harmony. Pakistan’s economy is built around hydro-intensive crops such as sugarcane, rice, and cotton. Extended periods of drought and unpredictable rainfall patterns threaten these crops, resulting in economic losses, food poverty and societal unrest.
Agriculture, which makes for a substantial portion of Pakistan’s GDP, is under threat from climate change. The 2022 floods flooded 78,000 square kilometres of agriculture, destroying 80% of crops nationally. Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns have reduced yields in key crops such as wheat and rice. The societal consequences of food scarcity cannot be understated. Food crises have often anticipated law-and-order issues. Rising food costs and shortages in Pakistan have already created resentment, with experts warning that if these issues are not addressed, civil disobedience would rise. According to sociologist Ted Gurr’s theory of relative deprivation, when individuals perceive an increasing disparity between their wants and available resources, discontent is unavoidable.
Climate change has far reaching consequences that affect not only the environment and the economy, but also the social fabric. Scarcity of water and food compounds inequities and creating frustration. When basic requirements are a few, community standards collapse, resulting in what one expert refers to as “a state of Nafsa-Nafsi (self-interest).”Such scenarios are not speculative. The history of environmental degradation causing societal disturbances is well documented. For instance, soil erosion in Ethiopia during the 1960s led to food shortages, riots and the eventual overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie.
Regardless of the importance of these issues, climate change is especially low from Pakistan’s political priorities. According to experts, the majority of political leaders are unaware of environmental concerns or prioritise other issues over them. This carelessness is evident in the inadequate execution of Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), which was introduced in 2012. A renowned environmental expert Munir Ahmed said, “Our politicians fail to see climate change as a national security threat, which hinders the development and execution of effective strategies.” This apathy not only worsens environmental degradation, but it also weakens the country’s resistance to future crises.
Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change is apparent, but its impact on societal stability is poorly understood. The lack of political will and public understanding contributes to the problem. Pakistan has to view climate change as a national security challenge. This involves making investment in water management, using climate resilient agricultural methods and incorporating climate change mitigation into partisan goals. The climate catastrophe is no longer a distant threat; it is a pressing issue that requires immediate and ongoing action. For Pakistan, the consequences couldn’t be greater.
—The writer is associated with the University of Science & Technology, Bannu.
