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Biden’s move undermines strategic stability in South Asia

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AT a time while the whole Pakistani nation is profoundly aggrieved and concerned about Israel’s ongoing atrocities in Gaza, the outgoing Biden Administration’s move to impose sanctions on Pakistan’s long range ballistic missile programme by pointing finger on the role of four Pakistani entities is seen by many in Islamabad policy and strategic circles as Washington’s unfair policy demonstration to achieve its geopolitical objectives. Since 2008, both New Delhi and Washington have been cultivating the benefits of strategic cooperation with the signing of 123 Agreement. In the pretext of maintaining a non-proliferation nuclear regime, the US sanctions move undermines the South Asian strategic stability. This is an unjust and biased US move carrying serious implications for the South Asian strategic landscape.

Arguably, by no means Pakistan’s long range Ballistic Missile Program poses any threat to the US security as apprehended by the Biden Administration’s officials. While speaking at Carnegie Endowment, the US Deputy National Security Advisor (DNSA) Jonathan Finer described Pakistan’s advance Missile Program, long range ballistic missile as an emerging threat to US security as it is capable of striking beyond South Asia, including the US. The US expert on South Asia, Michael Kugelman, took this remark seriously as it doubles down trust-deficit in Pak-US relations. Clearly, it is the US’ strategic and geopolitical tactic to pressurize Pakistan. This development needs to be fairly examined.

It is an undeniable fact that since 2006 with the passing of the Hyde Act by the US Congress modifying the US domestic law, to allow nuclear cooperation with India, thereby further growing their nuclear cooperation via US-India nuclear energy cooperation (largely manifested in the 123 agreement), India has largely expanded its nuclear weapons programme by mounting threats to Pakistan’s national security and sovereignty. The 2008 nuclear deal was further enhanced in the Obama- Modi meeting in 2016 when both the US and India agreed to build six-US designed reactors in India.

The US demonstrated nuclear role —in South Asia via its strategic manipulation of nuclear relationship —is aimed to achieve geopolitical objectives. Given the history, the both US Administrations – Democratic and Republican – have systematically extended their nuclear policy reservations towards Pakistan’s strategic program thereby limiting Washington’s nuclear engagement with Pakistan while broadening its nuclear cooperation with India as the US has been unjustly favouring India’s NSG bid. The truth is that the US-India nuclear cooperation has resulted in creating a perceived strategic imbalance in the South Asian region where Pakistan is compelled to maintain its nuclear deterrent capabilities in juxtaposition of the emerging strategic threats from India. In this regard, the US current sanctions on the Pakistani entities have raised concerns in Pakistan as it undermines strategic stability in the region. The US has been criticized for imposing sanctions on Pakistan’s missile development programs while showing a more favourable stance towards India’s missile capabilities.

Since 1990, with the Pressler Amendment, Pakistan, time and again, remained a victim of US toxic legacy of sanctions. Notably, since 2014, Washington has been imposing sanctions on Pak BMD Program. Whereas, since 2014, India has been significantly expanding its Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) program, working towards a multi-layered defense system to protect against ballistic missile threats. This expansion has occurred in the context of strengthening its strategic partnership with the United States and enhancing its overall defence capabilities.

So far, India has marked significant advancements in its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, including the successful testing of various missile variants such as the Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) and other systems. Additionally, India has enhanced its capabilities through the acquisition of systems like the Russian-made S-400 anti-missile system and other indigenous systems like Akash, SPYDER and MR-SAM. Today, India‘s BMD delivery system unlimitedly consists of land-based, submarine-launched and strategic bombers. And yet in contrast to the Indian advancement in its BMD system, the Biden Administration imposed sanctions on four Pakistan entities and three Chinese and one Belarus companies in September 2024. Now, in December 2024, the Biden Administration has once again imposed sanctions on the Pakistani entities: the National Development Complex (NDC), Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise, accusing their alleged role in the BMD programme. Controversially, the newly imposed sanctions on the Pakistani entities are aimed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, the US true leitmotif is to tactically establish India’s nuclear profile supremacy in the region. Ominously on 11 March, 2024, in violation of its agreement with Pakistan, India tested an ICBM Agni-v (MRIV) missile ranging 7000 km. But Washington took no notice on this development (undermining strategic stability in South Asia)) despite the fact that Islamabad had chartered its strong reservations over this Indian initiative.

Regrettably, the two South Asian declared nuclear powers – India and Pakistan – are entertained differently by the US domestic law which is a hawkish demonstration of US policy of double standard and nuclear apartheid in the South Asian region. With regard to this highly discriminatory US sanctions move which dangerously undermines South Asian strategic stability, Pakistan Foreign Office has expressed its deep and profound regret over the Biden administration’s move of sanctioning four Pakistani entities. “The latest installment of sanctions defies the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries,” the MOFA said.

For years, Pakistan’s stance has been loud and clear that ‘’our strategic program and allied capabilities are solely meant to deter and thwart a clear and visible existential threat from our neighbourhood and should not be perceived as threat to any other country’’. Needless to say, given the imperatives of our national security-cum-sovereignty strongly affiliated with the South Asian strategic stability, Islamabad will remain profoundly committed and determined to safeguard its strategic interests.

—The writer, based in Pakistan, an independent IR & International Law analyst, also an expert in Conflict and Peace Studies (with special focus on Palestine, Kashmiar), is member of European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR), including the Washington Foreign Law Society/American Society of International Law. He also deals with the strategic issues.

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