THE recent developments in Syria have been cataclysmic to say the least. Little known Hayat Tahir Al – Sham, a militant organization and a former affiliate of Al-Qaeda, along with other smaller rebel groups, swiftly marched up to Damascus, after quickly taking control of smaller cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Idlaib. This swift march of the rebels, culminated in regime change in terms of the exit of former President Bashar Al-Assad.
His removal was rooted in the structural weaknesses of his regime. Assad had managed to survive with the active military support of Iran and its proxies, mainly the Hezbollah militia. He also received military aid and air support from Russia. After the degradation of Hezbollah’s capacity by Israeli forces; the Iranian Preoccupation with the middle eastern crises and Russia’s war with Ukraine, Syria was left to its own devices to deal with the Islamic rebels and hostile neighbors. The once unified Syria is now fragmented with Hayat Tahir Al-Sham, with roots in Al-Qaeda, in control of major cities such as Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, and Hams in addition to Idlaib. The militant group has powerful backers in the US, Israel and most openly Turkeye, whose intelligence Chief was the first foreign visitor to visit Syria. He was reportedly driven around in Damascus by HTS leader Aba Mohammad Al-Jolani. At other places, Turkeye’s claim over war ravaged Syria was being resisted by Kurdish Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) in the oil-rich north-eastern and north central swathes of the country, where US troops are also present in support of Kurdish forces. In spite of this tense standoff, Turkeye is confident that if Syria could maintain its geographical integrity, many transnational energy related projects could be initiated by Turkeye through Syria.
On the other hand, as liberators of Syria were celebrating their defeat of Bashar-Al-Assad’s regime; Israel was swiftly moving its troops to take over more land in the Golan heights it captured in 1967 and illegally annexed in 1981. Israeli PM Netanyahu wanted for genocide by ICC arrived at the Golan heights on the same day and claimed credit for the fall of Assad’s regime. He attributed Assad’s fall to his forces’ attacks on Hezbollah and Iran and not the militants who marched on Damascus. The Israeli occupation forces (IOF) overran the UN-supervised buffer zone and captured the strategically important Mount Hermon which, at 2, 900 meters which towers over Damascus. According to some observers, the sudden takeover of Syria by the rebels, may not have been just a coincidence, but Israel, US and Turkeye, may all be in on the coordination with the rebels, to make good use of the opportune movement, to promote their perceived national interests.
Apart from its land grab, which is Israel’s wont, Israel also claims to have carried out 450 bombing raids over Syria. In these raids Syria’s air force, navy, missiles, chemical weapons and defense production facilities have been decimated. In other words, Syria has been left with nothing to threaten Israel with in the future.
In separate developments, certain elements of Pro-Israel Druze community which straddles across Israel, Syria and Lebanon have called upon Israel to set up a (buffer zone) homeland for them in the Golan Heights. This way, they assert that Israel’s security concerns would be addressed adequately.
What is glaringly clear from the latest developments in Syria is the fact: That West and its close allies Israel and Turkiye have secured a decisive victory over the so-called Iran-led Axes of Resistance which has been dismantled in Syria and greatly diminished in Lebanon. Israel seems to have put itself in a much safer position, with all anti-Israel nations in the middle-east effectively neutralized. Iran for now can only make bold claims, as the one recently made by the Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khaomeni. He recently said Israel’s assessment of the Axis of Resistance being neutralized is totally incorrect. The only other power in the region, which can put up at least symbolic resistance against Israel are the Houthis of Yemen. Israel plans to neutralize them also by building a base in Somaliland. The immediate danger from Israel and its allies seems to be to Iran and especially its arsenal of nuclear stockpiles, yet to be developed to the stage of Nuclear weapons. There is ample circumstantial evidence that Israel has been planning for some time to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, before they actually manufacture nuclear weapons.
The important question that begs an answer is: what kind of future awaits Syria? Will Syria be able to maintain its geographical integrity? At the moment the major militant organization HTS seems to be calling the shots. Its leader Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani is behaving like the de facto leader of Syria. But will he be able to hold all the other militant groups in good humor to continue their support to him? How will the presence of so many foreign forces and influences pan out in Syria? If history is any guide, almost all of the Muslim countries, whose regimes have been changed by the West, have been left in worse condition than they were under their so-called dictatorial leaders. These leaders at least maintained the physical integrity of the states and provided a semblance of security and governance to its citizens. These states include Afghanistan; Iraq and Libya. In my opinion Syria may not turn out to be much different from the above-mentioned states.
