SINCE the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947, the relationship between India and Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan) has been marked by complexity. While the two nations share cultural, historical and geographical ties, political tensions and mistrust have often overshadowed these bonds. Recently, under the Yunus-led interim government in Bangladesh, the relationship has worsened.
Tensions escalated on December 1, when a mob allegedly linked to the BJP attacked the Bangladeshi Consulate in Agartala, India. The incident sparked outrage in Bangladesh, leading to protests and diplomatic responses from Dhaka. The following day, the All Tripura Hotel and Restaurant Owners Association announced a boycott of Bangladeshi tourists, reflecting growing grassroots hostility.
The root of the tensions lies in longstanding issues, including India’s reliance on the Awami League as its primary ally in Bangladesh. This one-sided approach has alienated other political factions and created anti-Indian sentiment, especially among the youth. Many in Bangladesh perceive Sheikh Hasina’s government as overly compliant with Indian demands, fueling resentment and movements like “India Out.” India’s diplomatic strategy has also been flawed. While it often highlights its role in Bangladesh’s Liberation War of 1971, many in Bangladesh view this intervention as serving India’s strategic interests in weakening Pakistan, eroding the goodwill once enjoyed between the nations. This narrative has become more prominent among the post-liberation generation.
The crisis has led to retaliatory actions on both sides. Bangladesh has responded to the Consulate attack with stern diplomatic measures, while protests in Dhaka accuse India of undermining Bangladesh’s sovereignty. In India, the boycott of Bangladeshi tourists by Tripura’s hospitality sector, along with calls for action against the Yunus government, has intensified the narrative of Hindu persecution in Bangladesh.
Media in both countries has played a significant role in amplifying these tensions. Indian outlets focus on the plight of Hindus in Bangladesh, while Bangladeshi media portrays the unrest as a justified backlash against Indian interference. This growing mistrust has economic, social and security implications for both nations.
Economically, both countries stand to lose from a prolonged crisis. Bangladesh’s reliance on India for trade, medical treatment and tourism is significant, and any disruption would harm its economy. India, too, benefits from its ties with Bangladesh, particularly in exports and labour resources. Socially, anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh risks creating a generational divide, while anti-Bangladeshi rhetoric in India could marginalize migrant communities.
The security implications are also concerning. The rise of radical Islamist groups in Bangladesh, coupled with retaliatory actions by India, could lead to cross-border threats, including terrorism and refugee crises.To avoid a confrontation, both nations must prioritize dialogue and seek common ground. India must broaden its engagement with Bangladesh’s society, not just political elites, while Bangladesh needs to address the concerns of its Hindu minority and curb extremist groups.
—The writer is a political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh.
