UNFORTUNATELY, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become hostage of terrorism sabotaging caravans of peace, progress and prosperity in the country. A series of deadly terrorist attacks in the country has badly damaged the soft image of Pakistan and raised serious questions about our national resolve against terrorism and terrorist groups causing a diplomatic spat between two iron-clad brothers. The sad incident of firing at the Chinese workers in Karachi has further exposed our national building capacity to provide foolproof security to the Chinese workers in the country. Last but not the least, another terrorist attack by the terrorists of banned Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) killed more than 26 people and injured over eighty on November 9, 2024 at Quetta Railway Station.
Many reliable sources confirmed that it was a well-planned and targeted suicide attack and the main target of this terrorist attack was personnel of the security forces, proceeding to their home-towns and various duties through Jaffar Express. Thus Balochistan is in the line of fire eroding scope, expansion and utility of the CPEC Phase-2. Deteriorating law & order situation in the country mainly Balochistan and KPK demands an urgent need of the formation of the Corridor of Safety & Security (CSS) in which security forces of both the countries would play an equal role in terms of policy coordination, information sharing, joint drill & training, exchange of expertise, supply of equipment, anti-espionage gadgetries, joint policing, and last but not least hybrid security system eradicating breeding hatcheries of terrorist centres in the country.
Thus the CSS will provide essential impetus to the war against terrorism and put the state, society and the system on the right path of stability and sustainability in the country. All policy flaws should be removed as soon as possible to abridge the faulty line, gearing the CPEC Phase-2 in the country in terms of qualitative industrialization, modernization, digitalization, re-allocation of the Chinese industries, hybrid agriculture and, most importantly, building of Special Economic Zones. Time and again the Chinese government and its policy makers have emphasized on the importance of a joint strategy to eliminate terrorism. Therefore, all stakeholders, policymakers, politicians and military brasses should be on the same page to protect the best interests of both sides.
Critical analysis reveals that BLA terrorist attacks on Chinese nationals, security forces, national installations, and police follow specific patterns, aiming to sabotage the CPEC and Gwadar Port projects, with the ultimate goal of deterring China from sending its nationals to Pakistan for any developmental project, especially CPEC and Gwadar, initiating and exploding ethnic conflict in Pakistan, promoting sub-nationalism in Pakistan, alienating Pakistan through fear of militancy and terrorism and last but not least, targeting Chinese nationals in particular aims to create frustration of Beijing against Pakistan. So cyclones of fear are blowing fast in Balochistan and Gwadar making it difficult for the Chinese to make more and more investments and start CPEC projects.
On broader perspectives it seems that Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 United States presidential election will shape US-China relations for the next four years, carrying significant implications for trade, diplomacy and business exchanges. Trump’s electoral victory has changed the regional as well as international politics and economic engagements. Trump’s victory has sparked concern in China, where many expect the next president to be tougher on China than his predecessor, mainly on trade and economic issues with repercussions for an already struggling economy. Moreover, imposition of 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods could devastate economic growth in the world’s second largest economy and upend global supply chains, more technology controls and fiery rhetoric on Beijing, heightening tension in already rocky relations between the superpowers.
Despite fears of a renewed trade war, Beijing believes that Trump’s tough tariff policies would be deeply unpopular in Europe, Asia, Africa, Central Asia and Middle East creating an opening for China to strengthen economic ties with Europe and regional countries counter US efforts to intensify technology and supply chain decoupling between China and Western nations. Thus the role of the BRI and CPEC would be very crucial in the days to come. Trump’s triumph plummeted the money and stock exchanges of Asia spreading further economic alienation, isolation and protectionism in the days to come. The fear of Trump’s Trade War 2.0 would be disastrous for the Global South and China’s making operationalization and expansion of the BRI and CPEC in the future.
President Trump initiated a trade war with China in 2018, imposing tariffs of up to 25 percent on a range of Chinese goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. President Biden has not only maintained these tariffs but also increased or introduced new duties on strategically important goods. Obviously, scientific and technological development will become another key battleground in US-China relations under the Trump administrations. During his previous term, Trump, being more domestically focused, launched initiatives to curb collaboration with Chinese scientists and academics within the US and limit Chinese companies and individuals’ investment in US land and infrastructure.
In summary, Trump’s Administration has been known for its hawkish national narrative against China and its allies characterized by aggressive trade policies and efforts to decouple the US economy from Chinese manufacturing and technology sectors. Thus severe US decoupling and de-risking is imminent. It fears that Trump’s second term is likely to further increase trade sanctions and tariffs which could lead to further economic decoupling, de-risking and notions of overcapacity could further heighten trade tensions between US and China. Resultantly, bilateral relations will disturb and will have negative impacts on global supply chains, possibly destabilizing markets worldwide. International firms may find themselves navigating an increasingly fragmented global economy, as trade wars and tariffs create an unpredictable business environment.
While the US bilateral trade deficit with China has decreased somewhat since the Trump administration, deficits with other Asian exporters have risen significantly and may come under increased scrutiny in the days to come. Thus global economic inequality would further diminish economic globalization and the spirit of international cooperation would also be derailed. It qualms that economic protectionism, isolation and America First would determine the fate of global economic recovery. Thus the policy makers of Pakistan and China must collaborate to form a functional Corridor of Safety and Security to speed-up pace of CPEC Phase-2 and chalk out joint policies to mitigate expected economic hardship in the Trump 2.0 era. It fears that any jerk political manoeuvring would have devastating repercussions for both countries.
