RIZWAN GHANI
WHILE talking about the battle against Covid19, PM Imran Khan has warned about an in crease to 50,000 Corona Virus cases by April 25, 2020. He said it would be a hard fought battle and asked everyone to take precautions against the deadly Corona virus. Instead of waiting, Pakistan can avoid the projected losses by adopting a multi-pronged strategy against the virus and still restart the economy by May 2020 with a strong control on the Corona Virus pandemic. We need to understand a few things to defeat Covid-19 because WHO has yet again cautioned against early opening of businesses to avoid its resurgence.West is suffering today because of high cost of Corona virus test by their healthcare and insurance systems, which deterred public initially from getting the test on their own. It forced state to intervene belatedly forcing it to spend trillions of dollars from public’s tax money to contain the spread, save ordinary people, and the economy. And like 2008 financial crisis, once again corrupt politician and corporate nexus has given bailouts to the perpetrators instead of holding them accountable for avoidable deaths and bringing down their economies. Pakistan’s $8bn package if used wisely can bring much better results on healthcare and economy fronts. After a careful look at Germany (aggressive testing, decentralized), South Korea, UK, US, China, and Italy, it seems that we can use “Test and Target” approach to contain and defeat virus until a successful vaccine is developed because experts opine that return of virus cannot be ruled out in future also. The UK is using under £1.00 anti-body test kits to identify those who have had the Coronavirus. Germany is using decentralized aggressive testing to identify people with Covid-19 which is helping it to keep fatality numbers low as compared to other countries. The US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is now heading to follow similar approach to test and control spreading of Covid-19. In this regard, CDC has uploaded RT-PCR (real time PCR) reagent list for Covid-19 PCR kits which other countries are spending millions to buy from other countries. CDC has also given BEI resources link to get details about Genomic RNA material needed to validate Covid-19 test. All BEI resources reagents are provided worldwide ([email protected]). There is no cost for the reagents themselves but shipping and handling charges may apply. For Pakistan, the implication of this comparison and information is that: A) We should develop Covid-19 and anti-body testing kits locally to save time and money. B) Use all setups with real-time RT-PCRs to conduct Covid-19 testing to identify and target the “volcano” or the person who is spreading the virus. C) Use antibody test to identify people who have developed immunity to the virus. Federal government needs to make the entire system highly decentralized yet maintain strict standards with help of fast standard testing, reporting, and accountability. This “Test and Target” approach can help us avoid the projected number of Covid-19 cases, save money being spent on foreign ventilators (build ventilators locally), and restart economy as early as possible without fear of resurgence of the virus. We should give SOP to use all setups having real-time RT-PCRs for expanding free COVID-19 testing at grassroots levels to stop short of projected numbers and save lives. We can start with academics, universities, public and private labs and designated test sites with help of APP. If Imran Khan really wants to help Pakistan, now is the time to punish people involved in the sugar and wheat/flour crises, and recover Rs14bn to end culture immunity in the country. Then all predatory gas and power deals should be scrapped to get rid of circular debt, capacity charges etc. All tax relief being given to businesses should be stopped because government’s plan to give financial aid to 12 million people as explained by Asad Umer in media is spot-on. It is going to cover daily wageworkers (50 lac) and lower middle class people (70 lac). State should protect vulnerable and shareholders should save their businesses. To restart the economy, all sectors should be treated equally. Source of funding should be asked. The buyers of homes should be given incentives not the rich builders and real estate tycoons. All loans should be given at seven per cent and interest rate be lowered and kept at seven per cent for next 2 years. The Governor State Bank and Economic team should be replaced with experts who are ready to increase its size to bring GDP growth rate to six per cent and ready to use domestic consumptionbased economy. China improved its domestic-based economy by giving loans for washing machine, fridge, TV and computers. Germany has made higher education almost free which helped it earn $1.46 trillion from exports in 2019. Pakistan can also be a stronger and successful nation that can actually take care of its people as a true welfare state provided government helps public, not businesses and keeps healthcare and education in public sector. If government fails to do so, Supreme Court should entertain petition(s) seeking answers to questionable policies because it is opined that high interest rate is costing Rs1500bn annual loss to our economy, and adding to national debt while financial sector is benefitting from such policies. Britain ran entire subcontinent with 6000 Deputy Commissioners so our civil and military establishments can do the job for the government with minimum cost and outstanding results. Otherwise, IK’s speech will just be another illusion and Rs1.2tn package will also go waste. —The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
