THE substitution of the elderly, frail and not mentally very alert President Biden with the much younger and more dynamic Kamala Harris has provided a much-needed boost to the Democratic campaign. As of now, about two months before the polling date, Harris has not only recovered the ground Biden lost to Trump but has also established a lead. According to major polls, Harris is leading not only in nationwide polls but also in the battleground or swing states. A peculiarity of US election, the swing states—numbering not more than 8 to 10—play a decisive role in determining the winner. The margin of victory in these swing states is very small and they have a history of voting for both Republican and Democratic parties. Candidates from both parties spend most of their time, energy and funds in these states.
The ongoing election campaign in the US is marked by visible contrasts between the election strategies of Democrats and Republicans. As the race intensifies both parties are mobilizing significant resources and using distinct approaches to sway voters. These efforts by both parties are at its most competitive in swing states as explained above. States such as: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are some of the important swing or battleground states. It will mainly be in these states that the winner of the 2024 presidential elections would be decided. The American media, like the Media in most countries, plays a very crucial role. Candidates of both mainstream parties thus spend millions of dollars on campaign ads streamed through various forums of the media.
The Democratic Party has concentrated their campaign strategy on emphasizing social justice, economic equality and climate change etc. Harris’s campaign has also sought to highlight the current administration’s achievements, of which Kamala Harris was the Vice-President. The democratic administrations achievement in areas such as infrastructure development, healthcare, creating more jobs, reducing inflation and sustaining macroeconomic indicators are highlighted. The democrats have also undertaken extensive voter registration drives and community engagement efforts. They have effectively used digital platforms to reach younger voters and marginalized communities to build a political and social coalition that represents the diverse demographic landscape of the country.
On the other hand, the Trump-led Republicans are pursuing a campaign strategy centred on populism, hyper-patriotism, social conservatism and extreme nationalism. Their campaign amplifies themes of economic revival, law and order and a robust stance on immigration. Trump’s approach relies on his ambivalent “Make America Great Again” message and a highly aggressive media policy that leverages social media and right-leaning outlets to galvanize support and counter the Democratic narrative. In swing states like Georgia and Nevada, Republicans are reinforcing their core base and employing psychological tactics of fear and hope to attract undecided voters. They have heavily invested in advertisements highlighting perceived threats to American values and economic stability under Biden’s administration.
As far as communicating their messages to the voters is concerned, both parties are relying on large and powerful media houses to communicate their messages to voters. The American media plays a traditional role in amplifying the narratives of both sides while providing a battlefield for them. Media outlets, whether mainstream or partisan, shape public perception through their coverage of campaign events, with political debates and personal scandals influencing voters’ perceptions of candidates. The portrayal of candidates, framing of issues, and prioritization of certain matters can significantly impact voters’ attitudes and electoral choices. Partisan media largely contributes to the polarization of the political landscape, presenting narratives that reinforce their biases at the expense of established facts.
The second attempt on Trump’s life, sharply increased the political rhetoric surrounding the campaign. The two assassination attempts on Trump, enormously increased the security concern regarding the elections. The Republicans labelled the assassination attempts as symbolic of a larger conspiracy against them. Trump opponents, however, argue that increasing violence is the result of inflammatory rhetoric often employed by Trump not only against his democratic opponents but also against the majority of Americans, who are pluralists and egalitarian. As the electoral campaign enters into its final months, its trajectory would likely be influenced by several factors. The impact of the ongoing economic conditions both nationally and internationally. The candidate’s ability to address emerging issues and how they respond to unexpected events and challenges will play a significant role in the electoral out-come of the Presidential election.
The Presidential debates will also play a significant role in helping undecided voters to make up their mind. Campaign donors traditionally play a very important role in not only shaping up the election campaign but also determining the results. Similarly, the role of the Pro-Israeli lobbies will also be crucial as they support candidates who favor Israel. Both Trump and Harris will be trying hard to get their support. An important factor to understand about abrasive and populist Trump is the fact that he is adored and disliked by his supporters and opponents in equal measure. The democratic candidate on the other hand may not be arousing intense passion amongst her supporters, but she seems to be more acceptable to the larger and pluralist segment of the US society. In the latest news, Trump seems to be making some headway in some swing states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina by espousing conservative values like anti-abortion. The race for the 2024 American Presidency seems to be very tight and dependent on many factors. In my own assessment Harris may have the slightest of leads. The unpredictable trump can not be written off also. In the 2016 elections, he came from behind to beat the high profile and strong democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
