BALLISTIC and cruise missiles are important delivery vehicles for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Therefore, Islamabad has diligently invested in scientific human resources which has industrialized the vibrant indigenous missile infrastructure. Besides, the scientific bureaucracy has been involved in the steady advancement of missile inventories. The sporadic tests of these missiles manifest that Pakistan successfully acquired mastery in advanced cruise and ballistic missiles, including Ababeel Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle. Since the beginning, Pakistan’s nuclear program has been encountering the United States politically oriented punishing sanctions. The primary objective of these sanctions was to cap and roll back the country’s nuclear program. Despite these sanctions, Pakistan developed and tested nuclear devices in May 1998. Besides, the Americans have struggled to cap the research and development of the country’s missile program. However, Pakistan has withstood the American sanctions instead of compromising its nuclear and missile program’s advancement.
The shift in Indo-US strategic partnership into a threshold alliance has significantly increased Washington’s pressure on Pakistan to cease its military modernization, especially missile advancements. The Biden Administration’s determination to impede Pakistan’s development of military capability, which undermines or poses a challenge to India’s security, is a clear indication of the gravity of the situation. Therefore, during the past three years, the US levied six times sanctions against Pakistan’s missile program. “Under these sanctions, the US-based assets of those named can be frozen, and US citizens or anyone within (or transiting) the US are banned from doing business with any group or person named.” Conversely, during these years, the US has transferred sophisticated military technology and hardware to India, including the devastating new emerging technologies. On February 2, 2024, Washington agreed to sell $4 billion worth of the most advanced Predator drones built by General Atomics to New Delhi. India’s armed forces purchased 31 MQ-9B Sky Guardians for the Indian Air Force, eight for the Army, and 15 Sea Guardian drones for the Indian Navy. According to the US State Department, “The proposed sale will improve India’s capability to meet current and future threats by enabling unmanned surveillance and reconnaissance patrols in sea lanes of operation.”
The US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) was launched in May 2022 to collaborate in artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, 5G/6G, biotech, semiconductors and space. The cooperation in the said technologies contributes significantly to modernizing India’s missile systems, particularly in terms of precision, range, and reliability. Consequently, India appears to be increasing the size of its nuclear weapon inventories. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported in June 2024 that the size of India’s nuclear arsenal had increased to 172 as of January 2024(against 164 in January 2023) and was poised to continue growing. Pakistan, in comparison, had 170 nuclear warheads as of January 2024, unchanged since January 2023.
India currently buys highly advanced and cutting-edge sensitive military technologies from the American companies. Simultaneously, the Biden Administration is aggressively pursuing a technological denial approach toward Pakistan. On September 12, 2024, the US State Department announced the imposition of sanctions on a Pakistani company (Innovative Equipment),a Chinese research institute (Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry) and Chinese companies (Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Co, Universal Enterprise and Xi’an Longde Technology Development Co), alleging for supplying equipment and technology to Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC), for the development of Pakistan’s ballistic missiles. The US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said, “The United States will continue to act against proliferation and associated procurement activities of concern, wherever they occur.”These sanctions targeted Pakistan’s Shaheen-3 surface-to-surface ballistic missile and Ababeel systems. The US alleged that the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry had worked with Pakistan to procure equipment for testing rocket motors for Shaheen and Ababeel.
Islamabad rejected these sanctions by terming them biased, politically motivated, and based on mere suspicion. On September 15, 2024, Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said: “It is widely known that some countries while claiming strict adherence to non-proliferation norms, have conveniently waived licensing requirements for advanced military technologies to their favored states.” She added, “Such double standards and discriminatory practices undermine the credibility of global non-proliferation regimes, increase military asymmetries, and endanger international peace and security.”China also protested the sanctions on its companies. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, said: “China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that have no basis in international law or authorization of the U.N. Security Council.” To conclude, the abovementioned sanctions are the Americans’ tactics to pressure China and Pakistan, with the strategic aim of securing India’s support against China in the rapidly transforming global geopolitics. As the US and China relations deteriorate and New Delhi’s military cooperation with Washington intensifies, the risks of a nuclear arms race in the South are growing alarmingly. However, it’s important to note that these politically motivated sanctions are unlikely to hinder Pakistan’s missile development.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
