Situated at the crossroads of Asia, Africa and Europe, the Middle East is a critical geopolitical centre. Its position as a trade hub, rich cultural history, religious significance and vast resources of fossil fuels make it strategically significant. Looking back at events such as the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire post-WW1, British colonization, 1956 Suez Crisis, 1973 oil crisis, 1990 Gulf War, 2003 Iraq war, and 2010 Arab Spring, history has proven the Middle East as a volatile region that directs the tide of global affairs.
Persisting since 1948, the Israel-Palestine conflict is a defining aspect of the region’s conflictual politics. Current escalation started after Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in Israel on 7 October 2023, because of Israel’s transgressions. Since then, Israel’s human rights violations against Gaza’s population have resulted in the death toll crossing 40,000. In April 2024, war between Israel and Iran appeared on the horizon following Iran’s aerial attack on Israel on 13 April in response to alleged Israeli airstrike on Iranian consulate in Damascus. If war had materialized, it could have shaken the foundations of the existing world order.Although the clouds of imminent war dispersed when Israel did not undertake substantial response due to international diplomatic pressure, they have gathered again since the assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on 31 July 2024. This may be Israel’s delayed retaliation conducted through proxies and intelligence agencies. Iran’s retaliatory strike may involve both Iran itself and non-state actors, particularly Hezbollah and Houthis, as seen by the exchange of strikes between Israel and Hezbollah on 25 August. This response will demonstrate the truth of the speculations of the 13 April attack being a practical test of Iran’s capability to penetrate Israel’s defences. However, Iran may also exploit the fear of retaliation in Israeli masses to negotiate benefits for itself to improve its regional and global position by depicting itself as a responsible state. The brewing conflict between Israel and Iran deepens the shadow of a nuclear threat on the region, as Israel being a nuclear-armed state is an open secret. Fears around Iran’s civilian nuclear program being diverted for military purposes have heightened since the 2015 nuclear deal fell apart after US withdrawal. On 19 July 2024, less than two weeks before Haniyeh’s assassination, Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, estimated Iran’s breakout time for a nuclear weapon to be down to one to two weeks. Therefore, there is also a possibility that Iran’s retaliatory strike may involve nuclear brinkmanship. Given the U.S. and Israel’s fear of Iran going nuclear, transgressions by Israel against Iran’s sovereignty appear to be an attempt to draw Iran into war to create a justification for Israel to attack and cripple Iran’s nuclear program. Involvement of major powers further complicates the situation. The U.S. has been involved in the Middle East for decades, with Israel often considered its regional watchdog. Chinese involvement is considerably recent due to its energy-hungry industrial base. In the ongoing conflict, the lines are drawn and major powers have taken their positions. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit to U.S. on 22 July 2024 and China’s brokering of unity agreement between rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas the next day exemplifies how this conflict can become a reflection of the great power contestation between U.S. and China. USA’s support of Israel, for example recent approval of USD 20 billion in arms sales to Israel, has eroded international support for the U.S., undermined its position as security provider and weakened the tenets of the rules-based international order. For example, eight states including Norway, Ireland and Spain, have recognised Palestinian statehood since October 2023. Conversely, China’s emergence as a peaceful player with not only the Hamas-Fatah unity agreement but also the mediation of Saudi-Iran rapprochement in March 2023, demonstrate how China’s influence in the region has increased. Similarly, in January 2024, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE joined BRICS, the economic grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
These events indicate that the foundations of the international system are shifting towards a multilateral world. The unfolding situation in the Middle East has accelerated this process and each state’s policies at this crucial time will determine its position in the reordered world once the shifting tides settle. For the region itself, the current situation has two theoretical outcomes – either creation of a Palestinian state according to UNSC-mandated two-state solution which may create lasting peace, or the eradication of any possibility of a two-state solution which will enhance the existing discord in the region for the foreseeable future. However, according to ground realities, the former appears increasingly implausible given the scattered fragments of Palestinian territory. The continuation of Israel’s policies of aggression appear to be aimed to eliminate the possibility of reaching two-state solution in Palestine. With the GCC also seemingly divided on the approach to be adopted to settle this conflict, the prospects of peace appear increasingly bleak.
—Ms. Safia Khan is currently working as a Research Intern at the National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), Islamabad.
