DR SAMINA SABIR
COVID-19 has spread across the globe and resulted in substantial fatalities. However, developing countries are suffering severely due to lack of health infrastructure to cope up this pandemic. It is pertinent to mention that all the developing countries are taking the effective measures by encouraging the people to self-isolate by staying at home and completely evading interaction with other people for 14 days to contain COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing is very effective to control the spread of the pandemic but it is true that poor and low income people do not afford it. In Pakistan situation is not that good, number of confirmed infected cases have reached 2708 (as on Saturday) and death toll has risen to 40 and the number is increasing. Since the first case reported on 26 February, we have been observing exponential growth in the number of infected people. To contain the spread of COVID-19 and flatten it, there is a partial shutdown in the country. On one side government is reluctant to opt for complete lockdown by deploying army to enforce it, and on other side people are not taking COVID-19 as a serious health problem. However, a country where 25% people are already poor, how they can accept shutdown? Government may advise people not to go out to work but if their families will not eat two-time meal, they will go out anyway. If they are stopped by force, they may go for riots. Poor masses are in fear that they will die down either catching Corona Virus or hunger and anxiety. They have no other choice and option until and unless government will ensure and provide them basic necessities of life to make their survival easy. Our Prime Minister always gives us the example of State of Medina as a role model welfare state for all Muslim and non-Muslim rulers. He should remember the role of State of Medina in normal and extraordinary situations as we are facing today. Government decision of shutdown country to contain pandemic poses a serious challenge for the government to play their role to uplift the lower segment of the society.We don’t have doubt on the efforts and intentions of our government to combat Corona Virus pandemic but poor and deprived masses are in huge trouble. Government is urging people to adopt social distancing to contain and control the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. But think about the people who are living in a crowded slum. Even it is difficult for them to wash hand after every five minutes due to lack of running water. We must think about the people who don’t have houses, they don’t have food and they can’t shelter in place. When pandemics hit any country, they hit poor first and worst. Simply poor people are more vulnerable to pandemic and economic crisis. As the number of infected cases have been increasing exponentially since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan. It is observed that it is getting double every after six days and if it does not get flatten, it is expected that government will have to go for complete lockdown by deploying army to enforce it. But this may contain the spread of COVID-19 pandemic but this will enhance unemployment due to closure of informal sector of the economy based on daily wagers, taxi-drivers, grocery store assistants, chefs, online cream and Uber drivers and so on as their works cannot be done distantly. In Pakistan there are 56 percent volunteer employment. It is feared that shutdown will enhance massive unemployment that will have manifold impacts on poverty. This implies that no work leads to no money and no money leads to no food for the poor household. This will enhance death toll not due to Corona Virus pandemic but due to hunger. This is the testing time for the government to address and fix the underlying structural issues of poor families and households that are more susceptible to pandemic and hunger. The Prime Minister has announced economic relief package of Rs.1200 billion. It has been decided to provide cash assistance of Rs 12000 for four months that run into12 billion household people through Ehsaas Kifalat Program and BISP. Government should mull over it because this temporary relief will leave millions to afford necessities such as rent, utilities and food. There is a dire need to revise it to 18000 for three months to the same 12 billion households. Moreover government will look after the labourers who have lost their jobs to compensate them. For this purpose, government kept 200 billion. But still there will be the issues of equality and efficiency relating to the relief package being provided to the poor. It is difficult to outreach 100% poor people. There is a need of coordination between federal and provisional governments including GB and Azad Kashmir to figure out poor families and it is suggested to use BISP and NADRA database to reach them. Government has also earmarked 50 million rupees for the utility stores to provide food items at affordable prices to the masses. Instead of providing ration at the doors of poor, they should provide them cash payments in order to avoid logistic challenges and poor targeting. Despite of all these efforts, artificial shortage of necessities such as wheat flour, sugar, rice and pulses has been created through hoarding. This is putting upward pressure on the prices of these compulsory food items and is creating hurdles for the poor people by suppressing their purchasing power. Government should monitor utility stores to ensure the uninterrupted supply of necessary food items on a reasonable prices. Moreover, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has reduced policy rate by 2.25 percent and kept it at 11 percent that is still too high.To revive small medium enterprises (SME) as this absorbs a significant proportion of labour force, State Bank of Pakistan should cut down policy rate further and bring it in single digit. This will enable SME to remain afloat during pandemic crisis and will be restarted as soon as pandemic will over.We must remember the principle set out in the ILO’s constitution is “Poverty anywhere remain a threat to prosperity everywhere. Thus effectiveness of our response in this extra-ordinary health crisis cum economic crisis may be judged not just by scale and speed of cash injections, or infection curve is linear or exponential or whether recovery curve is steeper or flatter but what we did for lower segment of the society. —The writer isAssistant Professor, Institute of Economics, the University ofAzad Jammu and Kashmir Muzaffarabad.
