ISLAMABAD – Near normal rainfall, above normal nighttime temperatures are expected in Pakistan during September 2024.
Per the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), weak negative phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (weak La Niña) is anticipated. Neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) prevails.
Due to these, the following climatic conditions are expected in Pakistan during September:
Rainfall Outlook:
Overall a tendency for near normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Pakistan. However, Northeastern Punjab and Southeastern Sindh may get slightly above normal rainfall during September 2024. In contrast, Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan may receive a slight shortfall, but still near normal rainfall.
Temperature Outlook:
Daytime maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal over most of the country. However, northern parts (Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir), will remain warmer than normal. Concurrently, warmer than normal minimum temperatures are expected nationwide with maximum departure over Gilgit-Baltistan and Southwestern Balochistan.
Impacts:
Isolated extreme rainfall events may lead to urban flooding in the first fortnight of September. Although temperatures are decreasing, a short warming episode or an extreme rainfall event may still trigger GLOFs in Northern Pakistan, necessitating vigilant monitoring and disaster preparedness.
Expected rains during the month of September may not create any adverse impact on the growth of Kharif crops. Farmers are advised to follow periodic agro-meteorological bulletins. Sufficient availability of water in reservoirs will provide a positive impact on irrigation and power generation.
