IT has become national discourse led by the elite, talking heads and pundits that the world is somehow against Pakistan and constantly conspiring for its breakup. It is claimed that India, USA, western powers, Israel and even IMF and other lending agencies are diligently working to undermine and dismantle Pakistan. It is befuddling to hear these claims and the questions arise: Who gains by a destabilized, nuclear powered Pakistan? What is the benefit and to whom? Is it even possible to orchestrate a breakup of Pakistan and how? And, are these claims only to hide our self-induced failures of leadership and find external forces to blame?
Undeniably, Pakistan is not a small, banana republic with a tiny population that can be easily twisted and turned. It is the 5th largest country in the world with 245 million people; it has a seasoned army and is a nuclear power to boot. Given these, how do you breakup up a country with the expanse and depth of Pakistan? Quite frankly, it is simply not possible in the current day and age! If anyone had any misconceptions about this and if Pakistan were to take a downward spiral, the whirlpool created by a sinking Pakistan will impact not just the region but the world. And no one in the world, including India, would be able to deal with the resulting tsunami.
Be that as it may, and for the sake of argument, let us look a bit closely on a breakup scenario. Assuming Pakistan sits idly by and lets it occur, what happens to the western provinces? Would the breakup take place by ignoring the current border along the Durand line and allow the provinces west of the Indus to join Afghanistan? Seriously? The world, and the superpowers (Russia, USA, British Empire, etc) have never been able to manage an Afghanistan with a small population of 40 million and limited resources. Afghanistan has been and continues to be a thorn in their side and a pariah in the world community, for right or wrong reasons depending on who is judging.
How will the world deal with a new Afghanistan (inclusive of the KP and Balochistan) which will be double in land mass and almost triple in population? Plus, this new Afghanistan would have control over immense mineral and strategic resources since Balochistan and the KP are both ripe with mineral and natural resources; their terrains include the strategic passes that link South Asia to Central Asia and Balochistan possesses key sea-ports. Lest we forget, there is another superpower, China, which has made large investments in KPK and Balochistan under the CPEC. Would it sit idly by and allow its investment and realization of a century old goal of a land route to the Indian Ocean go to naught? It is a fools dream to think that all the myriad players of the world who have also been engaged in this region for decades would accept or allow such a breakup of Pakistan and rise of an unmanageable Afghanistan.
Now let us consider our eastern provinces of Punjab and Sindh in a breakup scenario. One can imagine that they can become their own independent countries. After all, if Punjab were a country, its population of 127 million would make it the 11th largest country in the world, ahead of Japan, Germany and the UK. However, it would be a landlocked country, which has its own constraints. Furthermore, such a separation would reignite pressure in Indian Punjab for its own independence, and India would be loath to want that. And supposedly Sindh can be its own country.
It has a population of 57 million currently and it is the economic power house of Pakistan with Karachi as its economic hub and plenty of agriculture and other mineral resources within the province. However, inner Sindh feudals and sardars would be unmanageable for a Karachi based government and law and order would be the casualty. Additionally, any breakup of Pakistan would make the borders unmanageable and a free flow of people would initiate through the porous borders to the east. Could India handle hundreds of thousands of Punjabis and Sindhis going back and forth, particularly if even a few hundred of them were radicals and fanatics? Arguably, not! It is a certainty that India would like Pakistan to stay united, stable and organized. Not just India, but all the powers of the word simply cannot afford to have a nuclear powered nation of 245 million be destabilized through economic, political or military failure. It is in no one’s interest and Pakistan is simply too big to fail.
Our nation needs to understand this reality, stop finding extraneous factors for our woes, stop making excuses and wasting time on conspiracy theories, pick ourselves up by the bootstraps and get to work. We are capable of achieving anything through hard work and discipline. We continue to succeed all over the world, but we succeed as individuals. We just don’t do it as a nation. And that is something that the leaders of Pakistan have to ponder. How can we create an atmosphere in Pakistan for Pakistanis to shine within Pakistan, as they do abroad? It is easy enough to gauge which of the political parties (PML-N, PPP, PTI, APP, IPP, JUI, etc) has a leadership that is forward looking, solution oriented and can create this atmosphere.
—The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is also a promoter of Pakistan and its Buddhist heritage.
