MOHAMMAD JAMIL
THE Indian Ocean is a hotbed and possibly the home to multiple conflicts. With the US’ quest for future control with its new Indo-Pacific strategy, India has clearly displayed its regional hegemonic ambitions. Both China and India have acquired strategic assets across the ocean and hope to monitor and control movement in future. The Indian Ocean is very important due to the thousands of barrels of oil that passes through it on a daily basis and caters to the world’s industries. India has spent scores of billions of dollars to enhance its defence capability and now it plans to modernize and upgrade its fleet of Russianmade SU 30MKI for the IndianAir Force (IAF). Speaking at Electronic Warfare Asia symposium in Singapore last month, retiredAirMarshal Daljit Singh saidthatthe Sukhoi is quite obviously a superb platform. The IAF acquired more than 250 of the type, most of which have been licence-assembled at the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) plant in Nasik, India. Singh said two key elements in the Su-30MKI – the radar and the electronic warfare (EW) suite – are falling behind the current state-of-the-art elements and need to be upgraded. The radar is the NIIP N011M Bars radar, which is only a passive electronically scanned array (PESA) system and would need to be replaced with active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar to give Su-30MKI crew a higher level of situational awareness. India and the US believe China’s acquisition of strategically located deep water ports in Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives could eventually serve a military purpose. Pakistan and China have more than once refuted those allegations. More than the economic reasons, Sri Lanka’s strategic location inspired Beijing to develop a strategic relationship with Sri Lanka. China is also concerned with the growing US presenceinthe region and Indo-US naval cooperationin the Indian Ocean. The deployment of half a dozen SU30 at Thanjavur, Tamil Nado, just 65 miles from international maritime boundary between India and Sri Lankais meantto counterChinesethreatandincreaseinfluencein IndianOcean region. Selina Mohsin a former Ambassador in a treatise in ‘The Daily Star’ wrote: “Sri Lanka and Maldives, by their merelocations, are of geostrategic significancein relationto East-West seatradeto and from SouthAsia.While SriLanka lies close to India’s south-east, Maldives is located 400km south-west of India. The latter has 26 atolls and over 1,000 islandscoveringa hugemaritimearea stretching 750km from north to south”. They are significant for China, India and the US, that are all pushing for strategic position in the Indian Ocean. India has alwaystreatedits neighbours as vassal states,China has always been wooing Maldives and for the most part has been successful. In 2015, Maldives became part of China’s BRImaritimesilk routeandswungcompletelytowardsChina and away from its traditional ally, India.Work on GMR airport in Male was taken away from an Indian company and became one of many contracts awarded to Chinese companies.The evolvinginternational order and changing security dynamics have pushed both regionalandextra-regional powers into more of a complex security framework. The rising economic and geopolitical significance of the Indian Ocean by featuring the strategic moves of India, China and the US; as well as the impact of these moves on the security of the overall region demand attention. The analysts believethat IndianOceanis amajortesting ground for great power relations between the US and the potential emerging contenderslikeChina and India.Even as China and India harbour ambitions to expand their forward naval presence in the Indian Ocean, historically embedded mistrust is encouraging suspicion concerning each party’s intention. Profoundmutualmistrust andmiscommunication is the ultimate reason for chaos and a conflicting situation in theSouthAsian region,and nowthe IndianOcean.AsChina, IndiaandPakistan possessatomicweapons,the IndianOcean is slipping from a zone of peace to a hotbed of atomic governmentalissues. India andthe US are occupied with agreeable discourses regarding India opening upits armyinstallationstotheUSin return for accesstoweapons’innovationto enable it to limit the gap with China. Dr. David Brewster, a distinguished Research Fellow withtheAustralia India Institute,in histreatisein ‘RealClear Defence’ had stated: “China has gone from essentially zero presenceinthe Indian Ocean around a decade agoto a fairly sizeable fleet averaging perhaps four to five surface vessels (plus submarines deployment), althoughthis number fluctuates duringcrossovers betweentransiting vessels.China now operates a naval base in Djibouti and no doubt has plans for additional bases in the region”. China’s entry in the Indian Ocean region,through economicinvestment, politicalinfluence, and military presence along the Maritime Silk Road has significantly altered regional dynamics.China’stieswith regional states have deepened, including the influx of Chinese capital into construction projects in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Amna Tauhidi and Muhammad Abbas Hassan in the abstract of their treatise titled ‘Power Play in the Indian Ocean: A Threat to Regional Stability’ published in Strategem (January-June 2018) stated: “The evolving international order and changing security dynamics have pushed both regional and extra-regional powers into more of a complex security framework.The same scenario seems to have arisen in the IOR. The rising economic and geopolitical significance of the Indian Ocean by featuring the strategic moves of India, China, and the US; as well as the impact of these moves on the security of the overall region demand attention”.With increased dependence of US and China in terms on each other could lessen the impact of competition in Indian Ocean for the time being. —The writer is a senior journalist based in Lahore.
