THE Americans and Chinese struggle to maximize their influence in global geopolitics. The recent developments indicate that Beijing is determined to thwart Washington’s politico-military initiatives to check its’ assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific. This evolving strategic contest has multiplied the security dilemmas of the regional actors. Besides, the alliance politics and transformation in the military doctrines increase the probability of a conflict escalation into a war between China and the United States’ allies in the region. China reiterated its Asia-Pacific policy to prevent any country or force from creating war or chaos in the region at Singapore’s recent Shangri-La defense forum. On June 2, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun said, “We do not allow hegemonism and power politics to harm the Asia-Pacific region, we do not allow geopolitical conflicts or cold and hot wars in the region and we do not allow any country or force to create war and chaos here.” Chinese ruling elite is alarmed by the United States’ bipartisan strategy to strengthen regional alliances and partnerships to contain China. Therefore, it responds steadfastly and assertively to regional developments.
The formation of the QUAD, Indo-Pacific strategy, and AUKUS alliances, aimed at consolidating the military strength of longstanding NATO-Plus and the Treaty Allies, is a significant development. The strengthening of military capabilities through minilateral strategic alliances poses a security dilemma for China. Additionally, deploying medium-range ballistic missiles further complicates regional security and stability, adding to China’s challenges. China opposes the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons by the U.S. to South Korea to improve deterrence against threats from North Korea. On May 29, 2024, the report titled “Peace Through Strength by U.S. Senator Roger Wicker recommended a “nuclear sharing agreement in the Indo-Pacific and redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in the Korean Peninsula.” The nuclear sharing agreement and redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the Asia-Pacific region would intensify strategic contest in the area, causing an upsurge in the nuclear arms race that has the potential to derail regional peace and stability.
Washington and Seoul may contemplate the redeployment of the U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea during the third Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting in Seoul. On June 1, 2024, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik and Japanese Defense Minister Kihara Minoru signed an agreement to resume defense exchanges, including a regular dialogue at the vice minister level and high-level engagements between Japan’s Self-Defense Force and the Republic of Korea military. The agreement signals the growing strategic convergence between Tokyo and Seoul against North Korea and China. The following day, the US, South Korean and Japanese defense chiefs announced they would conduct their first trilateral, multi-domain exercises, dubbed Freedom Edge, this summer. Presently, China and the Philippines—a treaty ally of the United States—are at loggerheads over disputed islets in the South China Sea. On May 31, President Marcos referred to the conflict as a regional flashpoint at the Shangri-La defense forum. He is worried about the Chinese coast guard capturing the Philippines boats under a new Chinese law to seize foreign ships “that illegally enter China’s territorial waters” and to detain foreign crews for up to 60 days. If the conflict escalates, American involvement will be unavoidable. The US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin guaranteed Marcos that the US commitment to the Philippines as a treaty ally was ironclad.
The strategic competition in Asia-Pacific is influencing the European strategic environment. The US-led western nations are engaging the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and India to undermine China’s regional and global geopolitics. On June 3, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Philippines to invite President Marcos Jr., to attend a Swiss-organized global peace summit on the war in Ukraine. He accused China of disrupting the summit. He said, “Regrettably, it is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of (Russian leader Vladimir) Putin.” Diplomatically, China is expressing its neutrality in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Still, practically, it has failed to convince the Americans and Europeans that Beijing is not assisting Moscow politically, diplomatically and materially in the war. The western nations are upset due to China’s refusal to attend the forthcoming Swiss summit.
Pakistan cannot ignore the increasing temperature in the Asia-Pacific strategic environment. The cementing of the Indo-US threshold alliance to check China in the Asia-Pacific directly affects Pakistan’s national security. Islamabad has severe reservations about the QUAD due to India’s active role in the minilateral strategic alliance and the Americans’ endorsement of India as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean. India’s newly constructed underground submarine base can house a fleet of over 12 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in the Bay of Bengal on the Eastern Coast at Rambilli. The new base would strengthen India’s naval punch. It would position the Indian Navy closer to the critical shipping lanes of the Asia-Pacific. Moreover, the underground base enables India’s SSBNs to slip into the Bay of Bengal without being detected by satellites. Increasing India’s naval power causes insecurity among the littoral states of the Indian Ocean, particularly Pakistan. Besides, it could pose challenges to China’s merchandise passing through the Malacca Strait. To conclude, the strategic competition in Asia-Pacific would have decisive ramifications for global geopolitics.
—The writer is professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
