Elections in the biggest democracy in the world India are now over and according to the results Narendra Modi will now be sworn in as the Prime Minister of India for a consecutive third term equaling the record of Jawahr Lal Nehru the first Prime Minister from 1947 to 1964. Almost a billion voters cast their votes in in this seven stage elections that began in April and the results were officially announced on June 4. The biggest challenger for the Modi Led coalition was the India Group of the Congress Party Led by Rahul Gandhi. In the 543 seats Lok Sabha. The BJP coalition of Modi has won 293 seats and the opposition group grabbed 233 seats meaning that the opposition has made a significant improvement in performance. The Modi campaign was run on the slogan of securing more than 400 seats but they lagged woefully behind their aspired target, Had Modi managed a brute majority in Parliament he could have made some fundamental changes to the Indian Constitution thus destroying the original secular structure of the constitution as envisaged by the founding fathers of the country but a third term for Modi will certainly have consequences for Pakistan and the region we live in. This electoral victory is a personal victory for Narendra Modi as so far it has been only Nehru the legendary first Prime Minister who had managed three terms in office. Modi’s right wing ultra nationalist politics based on Hindu Fundamentalism during thelast two terms have brought India dangerously close to becoming a Fascist state on the Lines of Italy during the rule of Benito Mussolini. During the election campaign he repeatedly used anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan slogans, vowed to turn India into a Hindu state and to end the secular structure of the country and the language used for Pakistan was toxic and belligerent. Modi’s third term will definitely have some serious consequences for India and the neighboring countries specially Pakistan.
Modi’s political philosophy is to use religion in politics and to turn India into a Hindu Supremacist state that will practically turn the 250 million Muslim minority into second class citizens. During his last two terms attacks on Muslims increased to frightening levels and Muslim places of worship were attacked repeatedly all facilitated by Hindu extremist groups and the local administration. Prime Minister Modi and other BJP leaders during the election campaign have vowed to expunge India of any historic Muslim influence. He has been constantly looking for issues that would click with the voters. The Ram temple he inaugurated on the ruins of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya a few months ago was a prime example of his increasing communal politics. The destruction in 1992 of the 15th century mosque was legitimized by the Supreme Court of India in 2019. In a fiery speech Modi went to the extent of saying that if the Congress won the elections they would give the peoples gold and property to the Muslimsand favor those who are infiltrators and have more children meaning the Muslims. Modi’s election speeches dehumanized the Muslim minority and the Muslims of India now fear that during his third term Modi will do everything in his power to marginalize the Muslims and deprived them of their civic and constitutional rights in a country that has always prided itself on its secular status but now Modi appears to be bent upon removing all historical Muslim influence from India. It is a very genuine fear that a third term for Modi could mean the end of India’s secular nature and its democratic institutions. Modi’s new term will give rise to religious fanaticism, bigotry and discrimination. Muslims Sikhs and Christians make up more than 25 percent of the Indian population and all of them are likely to suffer under a Hindu fundamentalist dispensation lorded over by Modi. Relations between India and Pakistan have been abysmally low during the last two terms of Modi and this time will be no different because of the anti-Pakistan sentiments expressed by Modi and the BJP leaders during the election campaign. Hate speech is a criminal offense in India but Modi and his henchmen used it to their hearts content with no consequences. Annexation of the Pakistan side of Kashmir is part of the BJP election manifesto. The Indian defense Minister is on record to opine that India could easily grab Pakistani Kashmir. After the Pulwama incident in 2019 the Indian PM had launched an air strike against Pakistan and the consequent action by the PAF brought the two countries to the brink of war. This incident was used by Modi to whip up anti-Pakistan and nationalist sentiments and was instrumental in Modi winning a second term in office. During his second term Modi went ahead to remove article 370 and make Indian occupied Kashmir a part of India that resulted in further bitter relations between the two countries and the removal of any chances of better relations between Pakistan and India in the foreseeable future.
The next one year will be crucial for the India Pakistan relations and it will be seen if the new Modi Govt. shows any positive gestures in solving the Kashmir Dispute that has been the major bone of contention since 1947. Chances are that the status quo will remain intact with no fresh initiative from both sidesand violence will continue on the Line of control with little chance of any thaw in the frigid relations since 2019. Another scenario could be a further deterioration in the hostile relations if the Modi govt. is bent upon isolating Pakistan such as their boycotting the SAARC summit in Pakistan in 2016 or withdrawing the most favored status India had granted Pakistan or linking sports events to politics. Another remote but desired scenario is that the bilateral relationship could improve to a certain extent. This could take many potential forms, including Pakistan taking action against anti-India insurgent outfits, the ending of proxy warfare and cross-LOC insurgent activities, both countries accommodating each other’s strategic interests in Afghanistan, and India joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The possibility of such a scenario will largely depend on how serious the Pakistani and Indian governments are in improving bilateral relations. Additionally, the role of third parties like the United States and China will also factor into the materialization of these possibilities.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
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