ISLAMABAD – Near normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures are expected in Pakistan during May 2024.
As per the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to persist during May 2024. Keeping in view the prevailing positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the climatic outlook for Pakistan in the forecast month is as follows:
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: A tendency for near-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country during May 2024. However, during the forecast month, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Balochistan, northern Punjab and Kashmir may get slightly above-normal rainfall.
Monthly Temperature Outlook: The daytime maximum temperatures are expected to remain slightly above normal over the northern and southern parts of the country. However, the central parts comprising most of Punjab and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may experience normal to slightly below normal maximum temperatures. Concurrently, warmer-than-normal minimum temperatures are expected nationwide with maximum departure over northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir.
Impacts: Above-normal precipitation in May is expected to benefit agriculture in Pakistan. But precautions should be taken to prevent damage to standing wheat crops during the harvesting stage from hailstorms and windstorms in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Photohar region and Gilgit-Baltistan. Current atmospheric conditions may trigger dust storms, thunderstorms, and hailstorms, posing risks to crops, buildings, and infrastructure in the region.
The atmospheric conditions are supportive for the likelihood of heat wave development; especially over the plain areas of the southern half of the country. Anticipated higher temperatures in high-altitude regions are expected to accelerate snowmelt in the Northern Areas, offering opportunities for irrigation and power generation.
