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Surprise day – a manifestation of Pakistan’s credible deterrence

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Ahmad Ali

Five years after the downing of Indian Air Force planes and capture of one pilot, the IAF is yet to get over the humiliation at the hands of a much smaller adversary – the PAF that uncovered the arena of inherent weakness of a “nuclear-armed” India. The failed effort to launch a strike inside Pakistan in response to a false flag operation at Pulwama on February 14 2019 demonstrated Pakistan Air Force’s military prowess and destroyed the illusion of Indian military strength.

In Pulwama, on February 14, 2019, a young Kashmiri youth, enraged by Indian oppression of his people, drove an explosives-packed car into a convoy of 78 buses carrying Indian paramilitary police, killing 40 members of the CRPF. The Indian government and media quickly placed the blame for the attack on Pakistan before any investigation had even begun. The hyper-nationalist and religiously indoctrinated political party BJP adopted a “coercive” approach and used the incident as an electoral card with only a few months to go before general elections, despite Pakistan’s openness to diplomatic discussions. The so-called Indian-claimed militant training center in Balakot, Pakistan, was the target of an airstrike by India on February 26, 2019. According to Hindustan Times on February 26, 2019 at 3:45 am the then Air Chief BS Dhanoa made a telephone call to National Security Adviser AjitDoval on a secure fixed-line network and said “Bandar maragaya” – “The monkey has been killed,” but at the end of the day, the reality proved that they just made a monkey of themselves. Indian government claimed that the strike had destroyed the training camp and killed a large number of militants, but Pakistan refuted the existence of any such camp at the site and said that the Indian jets dropped their cargo in an uninhabited forested area, causing no damage or injuries. Subsequent visits by both local and foreign media verified Pakistan Government’s assertion that the place did not house terrorist training facilities.

“The Pakistanis are bound to react, conventionally and not through a proxy like a militant group,” Rahul Bedi, an analyst at the London-based Jane’s Information Group told the New York Times. “Where they react and when is something that only Pakistanis know. Pakistan used a multifaceted strategy that comprised military, political, and diplomatic actions in reaction to the Balakot airstrike. This year, on February 27, is the fifth anniversary of “Operation Swift Retort,” in which the Pakistani military duly countered India’s abortive escapade. Operation Swift Retort was an immediate reaction to the Indian Air Force attempted intrusion that violated Pakistan’s airspace in Balakot, causing only minor damage to a few trees and a wild crow. India was not only taken aback by Pakistan’s military response to the attack, but it also learned some important regional and global lessons.

Operation Swift Retort demonstrated that Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership is aware of international norms and standards and knows how to uphold them, especially the inalienable right to self-defense against acts of aggression. India was obliged to accept defeat as a result of its preemptive “surgical strikes policy,” as Pakistan’s air force dispelled the myth that India’s conventional might would be enough to subjugate Pakistan. In a broad daylight on February 27, 2019, PAF shot down two Indian fighter planes and took pilot-wing commander Abhinandan Varthama into custody.

Pakistan’s precise and calculated response not only destroyed India’s ambitions for dominance, but also firmly established the country’s status as a responsible nuclear power. Even the sudden shift in events stoked fears that the long-standing animosities between Pakistan and India will spark another war. However, the PAF’s measured response to India’s misadventure prevented further escalation and thus prevented a major conflict between two nuclear enemies by demonstrating strategic constraint.

India’s air defense system shot down its own helicopter in the “fog of war,” despondently failing to establish its image as a formidable military force. While notwithstanding the failure, Indian media portrayed it as a huge triumph and professed to have downed an F-16. Regardless of the fact that the Indian pilot had said on TV, while relishing a ‘wonderful’ cup of Pakistani tea, that he was looking for the target on his radar when he was blasted by an air-launched missile.

Each year, the Pakistan celebrates 27 Feb as “Surprise Day” to commemorate its victory in Operation Swift Retort against a significantly larger foe. It has contributed to the restoration of trust in conventional deterrence in addition to bolstering Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence credibility. India has gone on yet another armaments and ammunition-shopping binge since humiliated by the Pakistan Air Force in February 2019. However, this time, they have failed to realize that what really matters is the man behind the machine and his steely nerves. However, the best sum up of events came from former DG ISPR Major General Babar Iftikhar who while giving a recap of the Feb 2019 events had said; “WE GAVE THEM A BLOODY NOSE AND IT IS STILL HURTING.”

—The Author is student of Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution. The author is a research fellow at Epis Think-tank Germany and an intern at Kashmir institute of International relations. His areas of interest include Peace building and nontraditional security. He can be reached at [email protected]

 

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