Rashid A Mughal
BY all means Trump’s visit to India was a success, not a big one though for him but definitely a big one for Modi. He achieved what he wanted. A visit from the President of sole superpower who endorsed his policies,(though outright fascist), ignored brutal use of force to silence voice of Muslims living in India in Delhi while he was there, acquiesced to Modi’s tactics to suppress the uprising in Kashmir which is locked down for nearly four months. While human rights violations elsewhere are condemned immediately, the same happening in India were termed as “Internal” affair. Rather than mentioning the cruel show of force by police and BJP ruffians on Muslim protesters, the State Department blamed the Muslim protesters to desist from violence thus encouraging and supporting Modi’s stand who obliged Trump with a $3 billion defence contract for helicopters and other military hardware.
What surprised Pakistan is that in the joint communiqué a note of warning has been conveyed not to allow use of it’s territory for terrorism and support terrorist outfits. Pakistan has always been a victim of terrorism itself and has always condemned terrorist activities. It is India which has always thwarted Pakistan’s efforts to restore peace in the region. Trump, who badly needs a peace deal with the Afghan Taliban to strengthen his chances for winning another term in this year’s US presidential election, only mentioned Pakistan for his own political interest. He said the US had very good relations with Pakistan and hoped to reduce tension in the region. This raises a question, why India, despite usurping the right of Kashmiris to hold a plebiscite on self-determination and by using violence against its own citizens who are protesting against the controversial CAA, is still not being given a stern message by the global powers, and why Pakistan, despite fighting a successful war against terror on its soil is still not being appreciated by those same global players.
The reality is that India is a big market for the US and other Western countries and that is a major reason its human-rights violations and growing religious fundamentalism and hypernationalism are ignored. But that is not the only reason, as Pakistan also has a large population of 200 million, and so is not a bad consumer market either for the global powers. There’s no question the forging of a strategic partnership between the US and India has been one of the most consequential geopolitical developments of the past 20 years. Since the George W Bush Administration, the US has worked to accelerate India’s rise in the belief that a strong, confident India on the world stage was in America’s interest. It is hard to overstate the extent of cooperation that has developed between the two countries in the interval. The US has emerged as India’s second largest defence supplier, with military sales totalling $18 billion since 2008, and the Indian military now conducts more joint exercises with the American armed forces than it does with any other country in the world.
This growing partnership is underwritten by a range of mutual strategic concerns, including worries about China’s growing power in Asia, the recognition of Pakistan-based terrorism as a major threat and a keen interest in sustaining a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’. In a healthy partnership, the economic and strategic relationships are joined at the hip. In the US–India relationship, however, the economic component significantly lags the strategic aspect and is a perennial source of problems. This has become a major issue today because trade is the primary way that President Trump measures the health of a bilateral relationship, but the Modi government has reversed course on economic liberalisation. Although bilateral trade in goods and services surpassed $150 billion last year and saw the US reclaim its position from China as India’s largest trading partner, both sides want the other to do more. The US is pressing India to reduce its trade surpluses and remove tariffs but these tariffs are part of Modi’s strategy to boost investment in domestic manufacturing as well as protect key constituencies like farmers and small traders.
The ‘America First’ and ‘Make in India’ policies are on a collision course. At present, the US and India have 10 active disputes against each other in the World Trade Organization, and the two sides have imposed a series of tariffs on each other’s exports and are threatening more. The confrontational approach both countries have adopted on trade necessarily affects perceptions of the other as a strategic partner. As one Indian commentator noted, ‘you can’t shake one hand and get a slap from the other’.
On the other hand, Pakistan has not tried to present itself as an alternative to India and Bangladesh in terms of providing cheap labor or providing a business-friendly environment to foreign investors. To counter Indian sinister designs, Pakistan needs to have a multi-dimensional foreign policy , based on its economic and political expediencies and necessities. Pakistan not only needs to look beyond its traditional foreign policy of depending on a few countries but also to maintain balanced and business-oriented relations with China, Turkey and Russia. It also needs to focus its attention on finding opportunities for its skilled and unskilled markets in Germany, Japan and other EU countries as after the UK’s departure from the European Union, Berlin is going to lead Europe. As far as the US and its allies are concerned, they will always use their influence over institutions like the International Monetary Fund and Financial Action Task Force to keep Pakistan dependent on them. Trump’s visit to India and his bailing out the Modi regime despite its fascist approach should be an eye-opener.
The success of the US-India partnership has implications for both countries’ grand strategies and in the past years the relationship has struggled to manage surprises and irritants. In February 2019, a terrorist attack in Kashmir killed more than 40 Indian paramilitary troops. Modi authorized punitive airstrikes against a suspected terrorist training facility in Pakistan with links to the group that claimed responsibility for the Kashmir attack. Since that crisis, US-Pakistan relations have appeared to improve while US-India relations have drifted. Washington’s ties with Islamabad have long frustrated Indian decision-makers, who have indicated US aid and diplomatic protection enable Pakistan’s support of violent non state groups.
— The writer is former DG (Emigration) and consultant ILO, IOM.
