Belt and road Initiative (BRI), famed as engine of modern development on international landscape, will shift global growth into high gear in 2024 showing robust muscles of resilience and sustainability in ever-changing geo-economics, geo-strategic and geo-political environment.
China plans to enhance the environmental sustainability of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, emphasizing a transformative shift towards green initiatives. This commitment underscores China’s dedication to a low-carbon global economy, reflecting strategic policy measures. Anticipated by 2024 is a significant surge in green energy initiatives within the BRI. Concurrently, China aims to streamline trade with improved infrastructure, anticipating a 12% reduction in travel times along BRI transport corridors by 2030, subsequently lowering trade costs. Emphasis on the common good seeks to strengthen the BRI’s global reputation.
As a partner of the BRI, Pakistan will continue to be beneficiary of greener BRI vision. Before the start of 2024, Chinese solar solutions giant LONGi announced to achieve the magnificent goal of 2 gigawatts (GW) in Pakistan. With the help of more Chinese companies, it is highly likely that Pakistan’s solar energy market size is expected to grow from 1.3GW to 9.77GW by coming years. Besides Chinese companies individually and in collaboration with Pakistan’s local enterprises have launched numerous EVs projects in the country. Many Chinese EV brands are plying on local roads. Recently, Xinjian Jingyi Cheng Group, led by its Assistant Chairman, GU Xongquan, announced to establish EV plant in 2024. It is expected that more China-led EV business projects will pour in Pakistan market and help improve air pollution.
Under the framework of CPEC, ML-1, a mega rail transport project, is likely to come into action during current year in order to play a pivotal role to modernize Pakistan’s trade, industry and commerce. Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar has longed for start of Main Line-1 (ML-1) project on a priority basis as it would improve connectivity between the country’s seaports with its economic zones, describing the ML-1 railway project under CPEC as most favourable transit route for the regional countries.
Three key words that may encompass the BRI’s development in 2024 and next 10 years surround around global development initiative, global security initiative and global civilization initiative. Reasoning is that these key words are next version of BRI in the face of impending challenges relating to ever-changing geo-political, geo-economics and geo-strategic landscapes. Both BRI and new three initiatives are the masterstrokes of President Xi Jinping to chart new course of common development and shared destiny led by multilateralism, co-existence, rule-based world order and respect to one another sovereign boundaries, peace and harmony.
BRI, as engine of international development growth, has immense potential to keep shining on diverse global stage. It has many dimensions and vibrancies. Across the spectrum of its engagements, the BRI extends its influence into diverse array of domains, spanning economics, culture and ecology. With focus on land-based roads, sea routes, airways and soft connectivity, BRI enhances rules and standards, people to people connectivity in various arenas like education, culture, sports, tourism and archaeology.
According to World Bank estimates, by the year 2030, the BRI is expected to generate a staggering US $ 1.6 trillion in annual global revenue, equivalent to 1.3 percent of global GDP. BRI is not vehicle of China economic growth but pathway to shared prosperity. It aims to bridge regional divides, boost trade and foster sustainable development across Asia, Latin America and Africa. Culminative two-way investment between China and its partner countries has reached $ 380 billion with China contributing $ 240 billion.
Statistics show that the BRI has helped lift about 40 million people out of poverty in participating countries. It has also galvanized up to 1 trillion U.S. dollars of investment globally and created more than 3,000 projects and 420,000 jobs over the past decade.
BRI will continue to face western-led development paradigm that encourages protectionism, zero sum game, de-risking phenomenon, bloc politics and cold-war mentality.
To let down BRI, anti-China lobbies have come up with many alliances. One of them is the Indo-Pacific Economic framework (IPEF). After the US unilaterally quit the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it has been intensifying efforts to reclaim its economic leadership in the Indo-Pacific region, striving to put forth an alternative to China’s economic strategy, in the shape of IPEF.
The Five Eyes alliance is an intelligence-sharing arrangement between five English-speaking democracies: the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. It evolved during the Cold War. But recently it has straightened its guns towards China and Chinese projects especially BRI. Another forum named Quad, officially the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a group of four countries: the United States, Australia, India and Japan.
The recent meeting of Quad can be interpreted as the beginning of the creation of an Asian NATO. The Quad’s narrative is more tilted toward strategic balancing against China. Hideous media campaigns to dwarf role of BRI on global stage is also another challenge.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has not been without its critics and challenges. One of the major concerns raised is the issue of debt sustainability. Critics argue that some participating countries may face difficulties in repaying the loans obtained for BRI projects, potentially leading to a debt trap. The concept of the “Chinese debt trap” theory, often raised by Western media and critics, is a subject of debate in development discussions. China’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through investment and lending has been accused of burdening developing countries with excessive debt. However, a closer look reveals that China’s role in creating debt traps is often exaggerated.
In the case of Sri Lanka, for example, China is blamed for the majority of the country’s debt burden. However, reports indicate that China only accounts for 10 per cent of Sri Lanka’s debt, with the rest coming from other sources such as international currency markets, the Asian Development Bank and Japan. While China has been accused of being a “neo-colonial power,” little is mentioned in Western media about China’s debt relief efforts. Over the years, China has written off approximately $9.8 billion of debt to other countries, particularly in Africa. China has also extended debt relief to poor countries under the G20 framework. The China International Development Cooperation Agency and the Export-Import Bank of China have suspended debt service payments from 23 countries, amounting to $1.353 billion. Notable examples of debt forgiveness include Cuba ($6 billion), Pakistan ($500 million) and Cambodia ($490 million).
