THE issue of Afghan refugees residing in Pakistan has been a longstanding and complex one. For decades, millions of Afghans have sought refuge across the border, fleeing conflict, instability, and economic hardship in their homeland. Pakistan has played host to one of the world’s largest refugee populations, earning international recognition for its humanitarian efforts. However, a hypothesis has emerged that questions the traditional perception of these refugees. Are they still refugees, or have they transformed into a different entity altogether?
This article’s hypothesis suggests that Afghan refugees in Pakistan have evolved beyond the traditional refugee status. They have become beneficiaries of the favourable business conditions in Pakistan, effectively acting as agents of bilateral trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the balance tipping in favour of Afghanistan. This article explores this hypothesis, delving into the nuances of the Afghan refugee situation and its implications for both nations.
Pakistan has been a generous host to Afghan refugees, with millions finding shelter and support within its borders. These refugees have contributed to Pakistan’s economy and society in various ways, from labour in the agricultural sector to entrepreneurial endeavours in urban areas. In recent years, Afghan refugees have taken advantage of the more favourable business conditions in Pakistan compared to war-torn Afghanistan. They have established businesses ranging from small shops to large trading enterprises, often specializing in Afghan goods. Afghan entrepreneurs have established a significant number of businesses in Pakistan. The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) of Pakistan reported that Afghan businesses in the country include restaurants, grocery stores, textile shops, and various trading enterprises. These businesses have contributed to economic activity and employment opportunities. Afghan refugees, like many migrant communities, send remittances back to Afghanistan.
According to the World Bank, remittances from Pakistan to Afghanistan reached approximately $1.3 billion in 2020, providing crucial financial support to Afghan families and contributing to the Afghan economy. Afghan businesses in Pakistan have become crucial agents of trade between the two nations. They facilitate the flow of goods and services, connecting Afghan producers with Pakistani consumers and vice versa. This trade dynamic is financially advantageous for both Afghans and Pakistanis. Despite the economic benefits generated by Afghan refugees’ entrepreneurial spirit, Pakistan has repeatedly threatened repatriation. While the concerns about security and potential links to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are valid, the blanket approach of repatriation is counterproductive for several reasons.
First, the repatriation would lead to an economic vacuum in Pakistan. The businesses and trade networks established by Afghan refugees contribute significantly to Pakistan’s economy. Their departure would disrupt these economic activities. While specific statistics on the economic contribution of Afghan refugees may be challenging to quantify accurately, their involvement in labour and entrepreneurship undoubtedly adds to Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Second, the repatriation threats strain diplomatic relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It risks creating tension between the two neighbours, undermining potential cooperation on various fronts. In the past, repatriation threats have led to heightened border tensions. In 2016, Pakistan initiated a mass repatriation plan for Afghan refugees, resulting in the temporary closure of the Torkham border crossing. This led to clashes between border forces and civilian casualties, straining diplomatic ties.
Third, by categorizing all Afghan refugees as a potential threat, Pakistan misses the opportunity to harness their economic potential for its own benefit. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan benefit from international humanitarian assistance and development projects. Strained relations can impact the funding and implementation of such projects. For instance, donor countries may be less inclined to invest in the region if they perceive diplomatic tension as an obstacle to project success.
Fourth, forced repatriation raises humanitarian concerns, as many Afghans may face unsafe conditions upon return to Afghanistan, which is still grappling with conflict and instability. Afghanistan heavily relies on Pakistan for trade routes and access to the sea. Repatriation threats and strained relations disrupt these trade routes. In 2020, Pakistan briefly closed the border with Afghanistan, impacting Afghan goods’ transit through Pakistan. Such disruptions hinder economic cooperation opportunities that could benefit both nations. When repatriation is perceived as a coercive measure, it can lead to human rights concerns and strained relations. Afghan refugees who return to Afghanistan under duress may face challenges in their home country. This can lead to international condemnation, negatively affecting Pakistan’s image in the international community and straining diplomatic relations. Pakistan’s rivals can use this mantra to damage the country’s diplomatic repute in international forums.
In view of the aforementioned risks, there is a need of channelizing Afghan potential for bilateral prosperity. Rather than viewing Afghan refugees as a burden or a security risk, Pakistan can transform this situation into an opportunity for bilateral prosperity. Here are some of the potential recommendations to deal with the issue in hand.
Firstly, Pakistan should develop a comprehensive regulatory framework that legitimizes Afghan businesses and trade activities. This would ensure transparency, taxation and adherence to legal standards. Secondly, Afghan businesses to engage in joint ventures and partnerships with Pakistani counterparts, fostering economic cooperation and creating win-win situation. Thirdly, It is pertinent to strengthen diplomatic ties with Afghanistan to facilitate legal and transparent trade routes, reducing reliance on informal and potentially illegal channels. Fourthly, the targeted intelligence efforts can identify and address any individuals or businesses associated with TTP or other security threats without jeopardizing the broader Afghan community. And last but not least, it is important to continue providing humanitarian assistance to those in need, ensuring that repatriation is voluntary and based on improved conditions in Afghanistan.
So, the epilogue is that the Afghan refugees in Pakistan have evolved into beneficiaries rather than traditional refugees’ sheds light on the complex nature of their presence. Pakistan’s repeated threats of repatriation may not serve its best interests. Instead, by channelizing the economic potential of Afghan refugees and using them as agents of cooperation between the two nations, Pakistan can create a more stable, prosperous and mutually beneficial relationship with Afghanistan. This approach not only benefits Pakistan but also contributes to regional peace and development.
—The writer is an academic and holds a PhD in International Relations. His Research focuses ‘Conflict Resolution in Afghanistan’.
