Staff Reporter
Karachi
Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely to settle at 13.58% YoY compared to 5.6% in Jan’19 and 12.63% in Dec’19, respectively. The YoY uptick in CPI is expected on the back of increase in prices of non-perishable products including Pulse Moong, Chicken, Pulse Gram, Eggs, Gur and Wheat Flour, increase expected in quarterly house rent index by 1.5%, and increase in prices of petroleum products.
Whereas decline in prices of perishable items is expected to keep the inflation restrained. This will take the 7MFY20 average inflation to 11.46% compared to 5.9% in 7MFY19. On a yearly basis, increase in inflation will likely be led by Food (+21% YoY), Transport (+15.4%YoY), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+14.6% YoY), and House Hold Equipment (+12.9%).
On a MoM basis, CPI reading is expected to increase by 1.20% attributable to surge in House Hold Equipment index (+2.4% MoM), Housing Index (+1.7% MoM), Food index (+1.4% MoM) and Transport Index (+1.4% MoM). As per three weeks Sensitive Price Index (SPI) data published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), average prices of Pulse Moong, Chicken, Pulse Gram, Eggs, Gur and Wheat Flour are expected to register a jump of 15%, 13%, 13%, 11%, 8% and 5% MoM, respectively. On the other hand, meagre decline in prices of essential food items like Onions (-15% MoM), and Tomatoes (-5% MoM) are expected to keep the food index contained.
