Challenges facing the Balochistan Province
IN the post independent history of Pakistan, the Balochistan province has mostly been defined by its geo-economic considerations and its vast fields of valued natural reserves.
Whereas this is true that this province has been bestowed by the Allah Almighty with exceptional natural resources, the geopolitical location of the province as a crossroads of civilizations, cultures and centre of power politics of major and superpowers has been more pronounced and significant.
What makes the Balochistan province extremely significant for the strategic stability of Pakistan can be gauged from the interests of three contemporary powers vying for their global ascendency in one way or the other?
First; from the Tsarist Russia through Communist Soviet Union and today’s Putin’s Russian Federation, Moscow has always eyed on strategically located province of Balochistan as the central part of its strategic expansionist theory.
Failing to control the region through hard power politics during cold war, Russia got closer to Pakistan through diplomacy and political engagement right from the beginning of 21st century.
Second; right from its gradual rise to the status of international power, the United States maintained its key interests over the region which formed Pakistan (post-colonial) and its strategically positioned province of Balochistan as a strategic legacy of British India.
This was more pronounced during cold war once US engaged Pakistan in strategic treaties like the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and less known Middle East Defence Organization (MEDO).
Besides, the US war against USSR in the decade of 1980s and the global war on terror from 2001 to 2021 provides sufficient evidences for the Washington’s interests in Pakistan and its key province Balochistan.
The current militancy in the province has its direct and indirect connection with the interests of the US and western powers for their strategic ingress in the region.
Three; after years of geopolitical survey and analysis, the People’s Republic of China has chosen Balochistan as key area for the implementation of its international influence through a mix of geo-economics and geopolitics.
Indeed, as a smart power, China found Gwadar and CPEC as the most crucial part for the success of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); the soft power tool, China is using to achieve the international supremacy.
The visible Chinese interests are delimited to the economic usages of the port and corridor (Gwadar and CPEC) facilities, however, there are strategic aspects deeply enmeshed in the covert economic theory.
It will give China an excess to Indian Ocean (IO), where India has already anchored itself, holding the key locations of IO strategically with US as its key ally.
Gwadar and CPEC are alternatives to Chinese Malacca Dilemma which the US and India are opposing by all military and non-military means through direct and indirect strategies of modern warfare.
As during the cold war, the ultimate target of this major power competition is Pakistan and the current phase of militancy in the province of Balochistan is manifest of Pakistani sufferance.
In a way the clashing interests of major powers and regional states has created a strategic dilemma for Pakistan which Islamabad needs to tackle with a lot of wisdom and farsightedness.
The threats posed to the province of Balochistan are indeed serious in nature with a direct impact on the sovereignty and integrity of Pakistan.
Though there is no direct threat from the conventional and traditional perspective of warfare, yet the transformed nature of these threats are seriously undermining the provincial autonomy, its security, the safety of masses and its stability.
Over the years, the militancy and terrorism has made the province and its masses as the hostage.
Indeed, the direct victim of non-traditional security (NTS) are the people of the province; the aspects of human security.
The format of warfare being used by rival forces in the province today is a mix of terrorism and hybrid warfare; a total transformation in the format of conventional and traditional warfare.
Whereas, the sectarian aspect was limited to Hazara community at the hands of vested foreign sponsored militants to create chaos in the province, the sub-nationalists seem to be deeply entrenched and formally trained, financed and harboured through decades.
The security forces of Pakistan have been actively involved in defeating this internationally planned gambit against the province and the state of Pakistan over the years.
As a consequence, there has been rise in the campaign of politicization and defamation of Pakistani military at the level of various political forces, several non-state actors and social groups.
These groups make use of mainstream as well as the social media for their disinformation campaigns to defame the military, FC and its premium intelligence agency (ISI) in particular.
This campaign has two dimensions; domestically creating abhorrence against the security forces and externally projecting them as the violator of human rights as done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.
Today, the province of Balochistan is facing myriad of challenges to its security in the form of terrorism mainly by sub-nationalists.
Owing to its strategic positioning, the major powers and regional states are directly and indirectly playing their active roles to keep the state of Pakistan in turmoil by waging war in the province.
Apart from terrorism the distinctive feature of these challenges is a war of narratives, perceptions and opinion making against the state and its institutions implemented through hybrid warfare.
As a way forward the Government must devise strategies for the direct social engagement with the masses of the province while addressing their socio-economic concerns and restoration of their trust over state.
Through a visionary strategy and sincere determination, this has to be ensured sooner than later.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
