Public mood at the start of campaign 2023
PRIME Minister Imran Khan recently launched campaign 2023 from Mandi Bhauddin and indicated he would be looking after the election preparation for 2023 within the party himself.
Similar indications and preparations can be seen to be taking off in other political parties.
The time is ripe as a series of local government elections have already warmed up the election machinery within the political parties.
KP is already seeing electioneering and aftermath of hotly contested local governments, which have thrown up lots of surprises.
Similar show is expected in Mary 2023 when Punjab, the largest province, would see electoral contest for close to 100,000 seats.
What is the public mood like at the start of the campaign? Who are the favourites in the upcoming elections?
What would motivate and demotivate the electorate in coming months to side and go against a political party.
How have the 4 years affected the popularity of the two main rivals: PTI and PML-N.During December 2021 and January 2022, Gallup Pakistan conducted a nationally representative survey of over 5000 men and women in almost 130 districts, covering both urban and rural areas as well as representative stratas of society.
The report titled as Public Pulse Report has generated controversy and healthy debate.What are the key findings of this survey and how we can use these numbers to judge the mood of the public.
Firstly, there are strong indications that Nawaz Sharif is re-emerging as a popular choice with high approval rating in all provinces of the country.
With a popularity rate of 58 per cent in Punjab, 46 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 51 per cent in Sindh province, Nawaz Shareef is leading the popularity rating among leaders.
Second, is Shahbaz Sharif, a two-time Chief Minister and current President of PMLN (he has 51% approval rating) and followed by Imran Khan, the current PM, at 36%.
The important point here is not the fall in Imran Khan’s rating (polls in 2018, 2020 showed 40% and 30% approval rating, which is not very different from his current rating at 36%).
The real change in electoral contest is happening because the Sharifs are regaining their lost image in the eyes of the electorate.
Nawaz Sharif had popularity rating of mere 28% in December 2018 which now stands at almost the double 55%, similar rise for Shahbaz Sharif (34% to 51%).
Prior to 2018 elections, the Sharifs enjoyed similar rating as we see now and it seems the three charges of corruption, unpatriotic and not good Muslims (the controversy which led to rise of TLP), seems to be going in the background.
Moreover, in PML-N’s strong hold Punjab (PML-N received over 90% of its votes in 2018 from Punjab alone), the odd choice of CM Buzdar and lacklustre performance especially when juxtaposed with very publicly active Shahbaz Sharif, has been continuously eroding vote base from PTI back to PMLN.
Secondly, the public pulse shows that the real contest still remains between PTI and PMLN and that the space for a third party (Pakistan Peoples Party) for the national theatre of politics is limited.
The survey findings show that Bilalwal Bhutto, despite having gained so much attention over the past 3 years, seems to be stuck at 28% approval rating between 2018, 2020 and 2022 public opinion polls.
Survey finds minor rise in his popularity in Punjab from 18% in December 2018 to 24% in January 2022.
PPP’s efforts to regain its national character and being able to make a dent in public imagination again in Punjab seems to be having limited success as of now.
Will PPP be able to outgrow itself chosen exile as a primarily Sindh centred party in 2023 election?
The report shows a rather bleak outlook.However all political forecasts are forecasts in the end and it is the politicians who are able to change the weather and not the pollsters.
Lastly, PTI is still a formidable political force and any estimations or predictions of its precipitous fizzling out (some have akined 2023 to be a water-shed for PTI like it was for PML-Q in 2018 and then in 2013) are perhaps misplaced.
Despite very tumultuous 4 years in power, sky rocketing inflation (one of the highest in 70 years of the country), the only negative GDP growth being recorded since 1952 and a series of scandals ranging from Wheat, Sugar, Urea and other basic commodities, PTI is the 2nd largest political entity in the country with being a clear runner up in KP, number 2 in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan in terms of voting intentions.
In all 5 electoral contests (4 provinces and 1 national), PTI is either at the top or a second in all the 5 electoral contests!
Such national character of its political base is unrivaled by any political party currently and not witnessed in recent history.
Moreover, PTI has an ideological voter at the core who is unfazed by the current performance and willing to give further chance to the party (the untested, new force image of PTI is diluted but still alive).
Lastly, the rival political parties till now are unable to offer a new alternative discourse or narrative which could woe the PTI voters away from PTI.
Inflation and economy are not the only drivers of electoral calculus in Pakistan.If that was the case PML-N which performed well on both counts would not have been voted out of power!
Like weather, political weather is never constant and is open to changes.Politicians are masters of changing the narrative and re-setting the political agenda.
Between now and the elections in 2023 there would be ample room for resetting the political weather and changing the political pulse in the country.
During this time one would only hope that our politicians would follow the advice of Walter Lipman (an academic, journalist and media man) ‘Before you can begin to think about politics at all, you have to abandon the notion that there is a war between good men and bad men’ I and many other citizens hope that the campaign 2023 is not based on war between good and bad but a debate among equals on ideals and aspirations.May the best man or woman be chosen among all the good people of this country.
—The author is Executive Director of a data analytics company and is heavy user of national statistics data.
