Return of great powers rivalry
GREAT powers relations are deteriorating.The US, China and Russia are at loggerheads over a myriad of issues which may escalate tension and bring them eyeball to eyeball over regional and global flashpoints.
The twin crises—Taiwan and Ukraine — are potential war zones between the East and the West.
The US interference in Taiwan’s internal affairs will furiously antagonize China; both global giants may lock their strategic horns over Taiwan quagmire.
China’s zero-tolerance Taiwan policy will bring its rivalry with the US at the point of no return provided that Washington continues to meddle in Taiwan’s affairs.
Similarly, the expansion of NATO to encircle Russia at its western region will stoke tension between the US and Russia.
Military deployment by Russia at its western border and the US’ quest to make Ukraine a NATO member country aggravate the relations of both former traditional rivals.
The more US tries to strategically squeeze Russia, the greater chances of Russia-China alliance.
When Russia and China forge an alliance against the US, it will terribly shatter global balance of power.
It increases the possibility of the creation of alliances and counter-alliances among world powers, compelling smaller countries to bandwagon.
The world will be divided into two major blocs between the US and China.Both powers contest to maintain their influence by expanding their geopolitical footprints across the world.
Realpolitik gains currency in the face of growing great powers rivalry.Escalating great powers tension cause conflicts.Competition slides into confrontation.
Nevertheless, realistic foreign policy may ensure stability of deterrence that repels big powers from direct confrontation as mutually assured destruction (MAD) becomes imminent.
Both deterrence and crisis stability are paramount for global strategic stability as emerging new powers may change global power structure.
Eroding world order and waning US influence have enabled other countries to grow.
China’s economic boom and technological advancement have created problems for the US as Beijing tries to lead the world at the time Washington’s role is declining on world affairs.
The US has abjectly failed to live in the paradise of power and enjoy the luxury of international system which it has constructed after the demise of (former) Soviet Union.
There are two main factors which have emaciated the US’ muscles.One is the internal political and social polarization accompanied with growing inequality and intolerance.
The other is its engagement in ‘unwinnable’ wars across the world.Afghanistan war has trapped the US in a deadly conflict for two decades while the rest of the world continues to grow without any impediment.
China has built an economic pyramid that enables it to compete with the US to be the next hegemonic power.
It is obvious that the US will attempt to retain its status as global superpower while China tries to replace it gradually.
It is hard for the US to be the status quo power since China strives to be the potential economic and technological master of the world.
With a view to countering China, the US has forged alliances, the QUAD and the AUKUS, at the Indo-Pacific region.
The US policy shift from fighting terrorism to managing great powers has returned the great powers rivalry.
The QUAD and AUKUS at the Indo-Pacific against China and NATO’s expansion to Ukraine against Russia will increase great powers tension.
It makes confrontation inevitable.The US-India-NATO nexus versus China-Russia alliance will shift global balance of power, creating security dilemma for various countries.
It again increases arms race which can affect deterrence and crisis stability.A new cold war between the East and the West (not simply between two great powers) is transcontinental that can become hot if there is any strategic miscalculation.
However, the US and China are two major players in this possible Cold War II.The flashpoints of conflict will be maritime routes and space.
Both the US and China will endeavour to play greater role over world affairs by occupying major strategic points at ocean regions to have influence on the sea lines of communication.
Space is another domain of great powers contest; it allows them to spy over the world.The new Cold War will be over crafting world’s technological order and restructuring the rules of the game.
Crumbling existing world order provides space for establishing new international norms.It holds that the United States has an obligation to spread its values to every part of the world.
China’s exceptionalism is cultural.China does not proselytize; it does not claim that its contemporary institutions are relevant outside China.
” If China tries to replicate the previous master’s rules and norms of global system as it becomes the next global superpower, it will have to restructure its internal political system to earn legitimacy.
—The writer is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst.
