Perils of alliance
DESPITE its geo-economic shift, Pakistan is at the epicentre of regional geopolitical earthquake.
Shifting sands of regional geopolitics pushes Pakistan at the central stage of new regional reality; new power arrangement in the region will create serious challenges for the country.
After disassociating itself from crisis-based relations with great powers and exploring economic realm for engagement, Pakistan has embraced a new doctrinal shift which gives commerce, trade and regional connectivity prime importance.
But changing regional geopolitics creates stumbling block for Pakistan to realize its economic potential and keep distance from bloc politics as it has strategically bruised the country for years, inflicting political and economic shock.
Pakistan’s tortured relations with the US seem to have reached at the cusp of disengagement.
Eroding world order, emerging great-powers challenges, unfolding ecological disaster and advancing technological development have drastically changed the US foreign policy priority. Now Pakistan is no longer a strategic partner of the US in the region, while India is cozying up with the US and collaborating in defence that enables New Dehli to modernize its military and counter China.
Certainly, it increases Pakistan’s defence burden, thereby risking the country’s geo-economic policy and making it a security state to build an impregnable defence against the adversary.
Keeping in view India’s conventional supremacy and its advancing arms development with the help of the US, Pakistan again creeps in arms race that will consume its much energy, obstructing its socio-economic progress. What policy Pakistan chalks out is influenced by regional geopolitical developments.
India’s regional outreach compels Pakistan to formulate a counter policy approach in order to neutralize enemy’s aggressive behaviour. Besides this, war crimes by Indian troops in Kashmir is another complication that never allows Pakistan to shift its focus on internal issues.
Given Indo-US strategic partnership, Pakistan falls short to ensure full spectrum deterrence.
The Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) between the US and India is a new bilateral defence agreement that allows India to get access to the US’ most sophisticated military weapons and provides Indian military with geospatial information which is extremely accurate to launch missiles against the enemy country.
Despite knowing the potential danger of India’s military advancement, the US is disdainfully feeding the very source of instability in the region. The more US arms India, the greater instability occurs in the region that endangers regional peace and stability. India’s military advancement is not only a threat to Pakistan, but to the whole region. It is obvious that the US intends to build a potential strategic partner against China, but it awfully shatters regional balance of power and spurs arms race.
By aligning with the US, India strives to cash in on the opportunity to be the regional hegemonic power. It increases the risk of confrontation.
Perhaps, the US strategically encircles China through creating a ring of regional alliance, but arming aggressive countries like India with advanced military technology would be against the US’ own interest in the long run.
Once India’s power grows to the level of a great power, it becomes difficult for the US to tame it. And also, but for now, India is too big to be used by the US against China in the region.
Just because India has territorial disputes or strategically on collision course with China does not mean it will fight the US war in the region. But India tries to build its own military by exploiting the US strategic needs of the time.
As India increases its military power, it becomes the sick man of Asia. It tries to have a finger in every strategic pie in the region.
It is neither in the US interest, nor is it in the interest of any other country to disrupt the strategic balance of the region. Almost all countries in the region feel threatened by an emerging rogue regional master which endeavours to establish its own regional order by lording over it.
The fallout of US partnership with India is visible. After estimating its place in US strategic calculus, India has illegally occupied the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir by discarding its special status.
Notwithstanding human rights is the central plank of US foreign policy, India’s naked aggression in the Kashmir Valley is shrugged off by the international community in general and the US in particular. Similarly, Pulwama/Balakot crisis is another illustration of India’s encouragement by US partnership to use aggression.
With the view to bring Pakistan to strategic terms in Kashmir, India will apply all possible tactics and cease every opportunity which emerges from shifting global power dynamics.
India operates with impunity from global multilateral forums and powerful countries because the US needs India in this critical juncture to manage great powers, so it serves India’s strategic exigency to mount its aggression against Pakistan and make Kashmir occupation a fait accompli.
Of all security threats, Indo-US strategic bonhomie is the gravest security challenge for Pakistan. It threatens Pakistan’s territorial integrity and national cohesion.
India will try to exploit all internal faultlines to demoralise the nation. Therefore, Pakistan needs to discuss its concerns with the US through diplomatic channels.
Perhaps if Pakistan does not serve the US strategic interests against China, exploring other avenues for engagement will reduce trust deficit between the two countries.
—The writer is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst.
