The gathering storm
Abrupt withdrawal rather evaporation of US presence in Afghanistan have sent jitters across the world.
Analysts are genuinely apprehensive of what may transpire in the region as dust settles down. This potentially explosive situation brought somewhat nostalgic feelings which cropped up in my mind when I read ‘The gathering storm’ as a young man.
The gathering storm is the first volume of “The Second World War, A history of World War II” by Sir Winston Churchill.
The magnificent work consists of six volumes which starts tracing events from the end of the First World War and culminates into the Second World War concluding with the end of war. This endeavour earned him a Nobel Prize for literature in 1953.
‘The gathering storm’ outlines the disastrous British and French foreign policy in the 1930s hinging on piecemeal decisions and intentional appeasement.
The book suggests that while Hitler purposefully followed a plan of aggrandizement, Anglo French diplomacy took a back seat merely delaying the inevitable (read war) without realizing it.I have noticed varied responses to the recent Taliban victory in Afghanistan.
A sizable segment of society has expressed jubilation and satisfaction over humiliating withdrawal of an evil superpower. Yet another group has felt vindicated on earlier stance that there was and is no military solution to conflict in Afghanistan.
There is also no dearth of people who firmly believe that this Taliban regime is completely overhauled and cannot be compared with the brutal governance model in 2001.
Last but not the least are those fearful of retribution tactics of Taliban as well as their restrictive policies towards women, cultural activities and sports.
One argument that remains conspicuous by absence is that of multifarious threats emanating from unplanned US withdrawal.
As US failure in Afghanistan would begin to vividly manifest itself, voices would be heard for accountability and introspection.
The beleaguered Biden Administration would soon start looking for a scapegoat to deflect the blame. This is where Pakistan crops up and we are surely working hard to burden this responsibility.
The dragon of possible sanctions raised its head when a bill titled “Afghanistan Counterterrorism, Oversight, and Accountability Act’ was introduced by some 22 Senators of the Republican Party including Mitt Romney in the US Senate some days ago.
Though not a government sponsored bill it induced palpable anxiety in the intelligentsia of Pakistan. The reverberations were felt not only by the politico-security apparatus of Pakistan but also in the Pakistan Stock Exchange which plummeted on the news.
The bill itself makes an interesting read. It recalls the Taliban “as a specially designated global terrorist under part 594 of title 31, Code of Federal Regulations”. It then calls for a complete ban on the Taliban representatives being recognized at the UN General Assembly or in any other agency.
It also recommends sanctions against the Taliban on account of scathing humanitarian track record and ghastly acts in the past. The bill also intends to “impose sanctions on the Taliban and entities and countries supporting it”.
It is not to suggest that the bill would soon turn into law. In fact, this bill, like many other bills sponsored by the opposition, would in all eventualities be consigned to the dustbin of history. Yet, the initiation of the bill reflects upon an ever expanding thought process in the United States.
Not only would the US try to avenge her humiliation by imposing sanctions on Afghanistan, she would not spare anyone whom she considers to be sympathetic towards the Taliban regime.
Also, the US opinion makers have not changed their opinion of Taliban regime and tactics and continue to keep Afghanistan under their watchful eye.
Our floundering economy would find it difficult to bear even a nudge from the United States if push comes to shove.
Hence, there was massive indignation on the proposed bill in Pakistani media which pointed towards failure of diplomacy in pre-empting this untoward situation.
Yet, we must understand that no magical wand of diplomacy can reverse the disastrous impact of whimsical policy statements.
Why do we need to resort to popular slogans like ‘Taliban have broken chains of slavery’? There is already too much on our hot plate to handle.
The other issue which is already turning out to be hornet’s nest is the need for a comprehensive strategy to deal with Pakistani Taliban or TTP.
The issue is very sensitive due to the unrelenting blood bath of innocent civilians by TTP in the past particularly the unspeakable APS incident which is etched indelibly in memory of this nation.
The idea was broached last month by the President of Pakistan when he announced that the government could consider giving amnesty to some TTP members if not involved with the armed group and don’t engage in criminal activities. Foreign Minister has echoed similar views while talking to ‘The Independent’.
Confirmation by the Prime Minister that talks had been initiated with factional heads of TTP recently has lent credence to the fact that amnesty on a limited scale may be a real possibility. It would have been prudent to amass broad-based political consensus before initiation of such talks.
Questions such as extent of amnesty, applicability and exceptions would help in devising a clear cut strategy to proceed on this explosive issue.
Would the anticipated amnesty take victim’s families of the TTP attack into confidence and seek their approval? TTP’s history of violence, non-conformity with norms or law and wounds inflicted on common people as well as security agencies across Pakistan may also serve as a guide while deciding on this issue.
‘Caution’ is a word written in banner in dealing with above issues, since a storm is brewing and we would be best served by avoiding rash statements or actions.
—The writer is a civil servant having an LLM from Harvard Law School, MSC from University of Oxford and an LLM from University of Turin/WIPO academy.
