Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi
ANKARA launched a major military operation (Operation Peace Spring) in northeast Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says the offensive is aimed at removing Kurdish-led forces from the border area and creating a “safe zone” so millions of Syrian refugees can be returned. Since President Trump ordered the withdrawal of US forces from the border area, and said the US would not prevent a Turkish attack against its Kurdish allies, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan took to Twitter to declare the start of an operation as the first strikes hit Syrian towns and villages, saying it was aimed at preventing a “terror corridor” across his country’s southern border. Last week, Turkey orchestrated air and artillery strikes on Syrian border towns— Ras al-Ain, Tell Abyad and Qamshli, according to officials with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its political arm, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC). Turkey also began bombing the locations as far as 25 miles (40 km) inside northeast Syria, including Katouf and Ain Issa, where the SDF and SDC headquarters are located, officials confirmed. Turkey’s Defence Ministry says the country’s forces have captured a Syrian border city after clashes with Kurdish-led militias. But a Syrian monitoring group said the fight was still ongoing. Turkish officials said on state media Saturday that the strategic town of Ras al-Ayn, which sits on the northeastern part of the border, has been “brought under control.” Several surrounding villages have also been overtaken, the officials said.
As per the Trump Administration’s stance : “United States remains opposed to the Turkish military move into Syria and especially objects to Turkish operations outside the Security Mechanism Zone and in areas where the Turks know U.S. forces are present. “ The US administration expects from Turkey to avoid actions that could result in immediate defensive action. The offensive started after President Donald Trump withdrew US troops from the area, which has been held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey and Kurdish groups have clashed for years, and Ankara recently signalled that it planned to carry out operations against the Kurds near Syria’s northern border with Turkey. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, is militarily led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a group Ankara claims are terrorists and a security threat on its southern border. The Turks stress the YPG’s ties to a separatist Kurdish group in Turkey, the PKK, which has carried out a decades-long violent insurgency against the Turkish state. Traditionally, the SDF have been key US allies in the battle against the Islamic State (IS) group (which is believed to have been created with the US-Israel support).
But Turkey regards their dominant Kurdish militias as terrorists. The SDF currently number about 40,000 fighters, with tens of thousands of others in parallel Kurdish security services, Kurdish sources say. The US joint task force on operations against IS in Iraq and Syria describes them as “tenacious fighters with a degree of basic military training to function as infantrymen”. But they are deficient in heavy weaponry that could be used against tanks or aircraft, though some units may have anti-tank missiles. A day before the start of a Turkish military operation in northern Syria, Erdoðan said Syrian air space in northeast Syria should be controlled by the Bashar Assad government rather than the United States. “Since Erdoðan has emphasised the rights of the (Syrian) regime over air space, this acknowledgement strengthens the claims that Turkey should establish relations with the regime in Damascus,” Sedat Ergin, a columnist to the Hurriyat said.
However, the ever rapidly evolving Erdogan’s offensive causes number of difficult choices for the Syrian Kurds. It is unlikely that they will withdraw without a fight, and thus might put up fierce resistance. Nevertheless, with superior Turkish firepower, and crucially, Turkey’s dominance of the air, this puts the Kurds in an untenable position. The keys to a compromise between Assad and the Kurds now lie with Russia. A full US withdrawal from Syria is a favourable outcome for Moscow as it widens its advantage across the Syrian landscape, and the greater Middle East. From the western point of view, the Kurdish forces have played a key role in defeating the “Islamic State” (IS) militia in Syria. They were supplied and supported by the US military. Despite Washington’s criticism, the US withdrawal from Syria is intrinsically seen as Washington’s green light to Turkey to move against the Kurds. At the same time, Syrian regime signalled it would not aid the Kurds despite tentative cooperation in the long-running civil war. On Thursday, Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Maqdad said Kurdish militants had “betrayed their country and committed crimes against it.”
As for the Kremlin’s perspective, in view of Russia/Middle East editor of Al-Monitor Maxim Suchkov: “In this tug-of-war for Turkey, Russia has positioned itself as a more pragmatic, predictable and ‘delivering’ partner than the United States. Such was the case with the sale of the S-400 to Turkey.” “Despite its wise posture on the issue, Moscow is wary that the Turkish operation may upset its own important projects, among them Russia’s brainchild, the Syrian Constitutional Committee. Russia’s primary concern is the future of the committee, and it is sending a message to Turkey that its offensive in northeast Syria must not impede the committee’s progress.” Turkey’s current actions do not affect [its] friendship [with Russia]. They will not affect it until interests vital for the Kremlin are touched.” Nevertheless, on October 16, Ankara agreed to suspend military operations in northern Syria for five days in return for a U.S. pledge to facilitate a pullout by Syrian Kurdish fighters, a deal President Trump hailed .Last Monday, Washington imposed sanctions on Ankara over its military operation in northeast Syria, and called for an immediate ceasefire. In the view of Turkish analyst Buhanettun Duran‘’Europe’s self-proclaimed smart guys must not ignore President Recep Tayyip Erdoðan’s political skills’’. According to a US-based analyst David Guatheir, ‘’Turkey’s decision to launch a military offensive in northeastern Syria once American troops have withdrawn opens a new front in the eight-year Syrian conflict, testing the country’s influence in a volatile Middle East where the U.S. wants a diminished role and Russia a bigger one’’.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law.
