Salahuddin Haider
OPPOSITION surely has weakened, its unity is questionable, but to call it orbit, or nearing an obituary stage, will be gross misjudgement. Despite weaknesses, or difference of opinion in its ranks. The Pakistan democratic movement continues to be a threat for the government, but whether it can achieve its goal, is hard to say.
As for Imran and his Tehreek-i-Insaf party, they must be feeling much more assured than before, yet they are yet to come out of the woods. Points to ponder are far too many, and to some extent ticklish also. The political chess board is indeed very complex, and those at the game, need to be cautious and careful, for even milder mistake, or miscalculated move can turn costly.
Analysed deeply, would convince even naïve ones that Peoples Party, in an episode, prefix of which was written some three months ago in September by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, has without doubt, been the keen and cunning player. Its prime character, Asif Zardari, mostly a back-bencher for health reasons, proved himself far more sharp and shrewed than was anticipated by the JUI(F) chief, or by Nawaz Sharif, whose speeches against army and the ISI chiefs, primarily was responsible dented the ranks of 11-party alliance.
One can easily understand the reasons for contempt and hatred displayed by the exiled PML(N) leader who articulated his thinking through a vibrant daughter. Whether one likes or not, the fact remains that she has emerged as outstanding speaker and crowd collector. Pundits may differ with the tone and tenor of her speeches. They may even describe contents of what she says as faulty or ill-timed, but cannot deny her the credit for the expertise she has acquired.
Similar is the case with Bilawal Bhutto. The two, on cooler reflection can easily be called master crafters. Their campaigning during Gilgit-Baltistan elections was genuine display of an art, which many in the field take years to secure. Poll results fell short of their expectations, but Bilawal still had upper hand than Maryam. Neither can win the seats they had been expecting, yet they put up a fine show.
The PDM started off well, but fell victim to personalized ambitions. Nawaz was responsible for that, and Maryam fell prey to father’s desires. Bilawal was lucky to have a clever and cunning guide in Asif Zardari. He is by far the most sensible and articulate players of all those in the game now. It was because of him that PPP retracted on the resignation issue. Bilawal listened to his father, agreeing that resignations would mean losing Sindh, a province where it had complete control since 2008. Also PPP leaders understood the advices from experts in legal and Constitution laws that PTI would continue to command majority in the Federal and Provincial legislatures in three of the four provinces. It would thus be a folly to leave the field open to Imran Khan to not only gain two-third majority in the assemblies, but also in the Senate.
Such a situation would be a God-sent opportunity for him to do away with 18th amendment, and also bring legislative chances favourable to him without any difficulty. Maryam surely looked disappointed for her hard-line approach and the gains she had been expecting from the anti-government and anti-establishment through rallies and long marches suddenly came to the ground. Nawaz in London too failed to achieve what he wanted. Khawaja Asif’s arrest had jolted him too. Reports are now filtering in that he had probably applied, or intends to request the British Government for asylum, or perhaps grant of Investment visa. The latter would be easier to get because his massive business interest.
People may say that Fazlur Rehman was the solitary loser in the sordid drama, but it won’t be a correct conclusion. He has nothing to lose. He may have suffered loss of image, and, may for the time being, feel himself a loner, but in longer term he may appear again be in the limelight. Some of the commentators rightly stated that economic woes are giving the alliance legs, but overturning a military-backed prime minister is a hard proposition
Ousting Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government is a very tall order, thanks in great part to Khan’s backing by Pakistan’s powerful security forces. Opposition alliances have a long history in Pakistan. They have come together against military dictators, and with varying success. They helped remove Field Marshal Ayub Khan from the presidency in the late 1960s, but were less successful against Gen. Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq’s presidency in the 1980s. These alliances have also been deployed against civilian leaders, including one against Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977 that resulted in the military coup that brought Zia to power.
None of these are exactly analogous to the current movement, though the one against Bhutto, spearheaded by the Pakistan National Alliance, bears many similarities. Like the PDM today, the Pakistan National Alliance targeted a civilian administration with a populist leader that it accused of benefiting from election-rigging and of implementing authoritarian measures and damaging economic policies.
