Sikandar Noorani
SANE quarters of the society will never deny the importance of upcoming elections in GB. Three factors have brought these elections in the spotlight of national, international and regional media. First, almost fifteen months ago BJP’ government abrogated the special constitutional status of IIOJK and unilaterally converted the disputed areas in Union Territory in clear violation of UN resolutions. This volatile move was spontaneously rejected by Pakistan and China. India is continuously adopting an aggressive posture by calling GB and AJK as its integral parts. It is a well-known fact that in any future plebiscite residents of GB, being part of the State of Kashmir, will also cast their votes. Second, the Pakistan government has officially expressed its will to grant the status of fifth province to GB primarily with an aim to raise the living conditions through enhanced developmental works.
More obviously, this decision of provincial status has created an optics of reactionary move to Indian abrogation of Article 370 but in reality the whole idea is revolving around welfare of masses and upgradation of GB. Question rightly arises that how Pakistan can object upon conversion of J&K in Indian Union territory after granting provincial status to GB? Interestingly, Pakistan has catered for this objection by prefixing the conversion process with the word ‘Provisional’. It is a common understanding at this point that GB’s provisional status of province will finish in case of any future plebiscite on either side of the LoC. This move from Pak side has deeply irked the extremist BJP regime which is now challenging the whole process by repeatedly claiming AJK and GB as its integral part. It is not that New Delhi turning aggressive on the LoC alone but a big standoff with China continues at the LAC as well in Eastern Ladakh.
This two-front simultaneous engagement of India is something unprecedented and alarming. Third, GB region carries special significance in BRI and CPEC plans which have never been viewed with ease by India and its strategic master ally USA. Indian dream of fighting a two-front war simultaneously against China and Pakistan has got some practical manifestation in the present regional scenario. New Delhi is desperately procuring costly war machinery with a single aim to gain the status of a regional superpower. Recent joint episode of Malabar Naval Exercise by India, Japan, US and Australia was also a loud message to China and its allies. Prior to this, Quad countries meeting at Tokyo was all China centric where US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo minced no words in expressing American strong urge to contain the rising influence of Beijing at global and regional canvas.
New Delhi’s struggle to exploit America’s anti-China mindset might improve its war equipment inventory transitorily but in the longer run India would prove nothing more than an over exuberant regional policeman of Washington. This persistent false posturing, to appease the US, as a counterweight to China in the region will fetch multiple future challenges for India. Embarrassment and shocks of the LAC standoff with China may be the tip of an iceberg for India. New Delhi’s desperation for a face saving disengagement at the LAC is the true reflection of its weaker military muscles for a two front-war with China and Pakistan. Cross border terrorism, coercion, false propaganda, shrewd diplomacy and patronization of separatist militants are the all-time favourite options of New Delhi. Pakistan has been fighting out this coercive Indian mindset since long. India will make all efforts to spoil the upcoming elections in GB. Foreign-based fake intellectuals with dubious credentials have launched the first wave of assault by writing twisted articles in those papers and periodicals which are under close supervision of Indian Establishment.
Fair and peaceful conduct of elections in GB will put a great pressure on New Delhi which is running affairs in IIOJK through Lieutenant Governor in the absence of credible elected representatives. Level of oppression in IIOJK can be gauged from the fact that New Delhi could not even absorb or bear the toothless puppet government of Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP. In the post-5th August scenario, all puppet CMs were kept under arrest without according any allowance for their past unflinching loyalties with New Delhi instead of Kashmiri masses. There should be no doubt that India would surely make all possible moves to challenge the credibility and transparency of GB elections amid Parliament’s future role in legal regularization of provincial status. Mainstream parties especially PPP, PTI and PML-N have geared up respective election campaigns in GB. Unfortunately, bad traits of foul mouthing and personal attacks are dominating the speeches made in election gatherings. Old rigging mantra is being used extensively and unwisely even prior to the polling. These baseless habitual rigging allegations, if not stopped at this stage, will eventually serve the purpose of India. It must be understood by party leaders that any unwise statement on account of rigging will be used by India at international forums to challenge the transparency of elections and subsequent legal process of provincial status. The nation, especially the people of GB, expect from all leaders an extremely cautious and mature conduct corresponding to the sensitivity and likely future complications attached to these vital elections.
—The writer is contributing columnist, based in Rawalpindi.
