Dr Muhammad Khurram
IT is evident that China has not only thwarted Indian designs in Ladakh but has also forestalled Indian efforts to become a strategic player in Afghanistan and Central Asia. The current phase of China-India border tension started on 5 May 2020. The two countries share a poorly demarcated border which is more than 3,440km long and is wrought with overlapping claims. Occasional tension between border patrols have been reported in the region over the years. Most recent was the Doklam crisis in 2017 which was triggered by road construction at the junction of India, China and Bhutan by the Chinese resulting in a 73-day standoff. Even that protracted standoff did not result in deaths continuing a tradition which had established itself over past four decades.
By the end of May 2020, Chinese objected to Indian road construction in Galwan river valley. Galwan river valley road extends several hundred kilometers connecting to an Indian air force base which was reactivated by India in 2008. Chinese finally reacted by putting up tents, digging trenches and moving heavy equipment into the region long considered by Indians as their territory. There were reports of scuffles between the two forces in the region in May and early June. Things came to head in mid June when both countries reported skirmishes along the line of actual control (LAC) with twenty Indian soldiers being killed. India claimed that there were 43 Chinese casualties during the face off but Chinese government abstained from issuing any statement in this regard.
Several reasons have been ascribed to genesis of the current conflict ranging from irregular nature of border to historical misgivings and mistrust between the two neighbors. However, one important analysis hinging on an entirely different reason should be accorded due weightage. According to an article written by Wang Shida who is Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a Beijing based think-tank, Chinese Foreign Minister had conveyed China’s reservations to India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on the latter’s three-day visit to China regarding the abrogation of article 370 and establishment of Ladakh as a Union Territory. The article went on to claim that current tensions along the Line of Actual Control germinated from abrogation of Article 370.
Once fatalities occur, de-escalation becomes increasingly difficult because mounting public pressure enters the arena and becomes a key variable. Therefore, one has to give credit to both countries as they entered in bilateral negotiations to defuse the tension after the incident. Yet, no one but the Chinese knew at that time that the next battle would not be fought at contiguous borders but in a third country some 1000 miles away. Also, Beijing’s stroke of master diplomacy would not be to outsmart India on physical borders but on a strategic front. On 11th July, New York Times reported that China plans to invest US$400 billion into infrastructure investment in Iran as part of a 25-year economic and security partnership. This will ensure supply of relatively cheap oil which is vital for unabated Chinese economic growth. A close look at New York Times article makes it abundantly clear that China is after Chabahar port, Iran’s crown jewel.
Iran’s Chabahar port is strategically located and serves as one of major economic lifelines of the country. The port is unique in the sense that it was purposely spared from sanctions by the United States which swept across most of Iranian assets.. As a result of the exception, Afghanistan is able to import Iranian fuel and Iranian-made goods considered vital for humanitarian assistance adding stability to that country. India had since long planned to invest in the Chabahar port in Sistan-Balochistan province of Iran on Indian Ocean. The project envisaged building a rail route from Chabahar to Zahedan at the border of Afghanistan and Iran. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his May 2016 visit to Tehran, had signed the Chabahar agreement with Iranian President Rouhani and Afghan President Ghani. With this a memorandum of understanding was also finalized between IRCON (Indian Railway Company) and the Iranian Rail Ministry. IRCON was supposed to do the entire work on the Chabahar railway project including providing for financing as per terms of MoU. The project would have considerably increased Indian influence in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Easier access through ocean to Chabahar and then through shortest possible railroad would have opened unimaginable opportunities for Indian economy.
By no coincidence, Iran on July 14th announced that National Development Fund of Iran would now finance the railway effectively excluding India from the deal as IRCON would no longer built or finance it. It takes no Einstein to figure out the dynamics of Chinese diplomacy and exclusion of India. Claude Rakisits, who is professor of diplomacy at Australian National University, has stated that China-Iran trade deal and ejection of India are connected. Having gone through recent developments, let me further hypothesize that China would become an integral player in Chabahar railroad project in coming years. It is evident that China has not only thwarted Indian designs in Ladakh but has also forestalled Indian efforts to become a strategic player in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chinese military and diplomatic juggernaut would continue to haunt Indian dreams of local and global influence for times to come.
—The writer is a civil servant having an LLM from Harvard Law School, MSC from University of Oxford and an LLM from University of Turin/WIPO academy.
