M Omar Iftikhar
THE Caucasus region was rocked by the escalating of conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both countries have been struggling to take hold of the breakaway province of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian separatist enclave in Azerbaijan. This was the first major escalation after 2016. This territorial and ethnic conflict had its origins during the 20th century when the Soviet Union existed. The then commander of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin, declared that the Nagorno-Karabakh region will be an autonomous oblast, an administrative unit created for several smaller countries under the then Soviet Union. Azerbaijan was known as Soviet Azerbaijan, it was one of the constituent republics of the Soviet Union between 1922 and 1991. However, in 1988 the conflict escalated to new heights when the Karabakh Armenians demanded that Karabakh be transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. During the early 1990s, this conflict intensified to a full-fledged war. In 1994 a ceasefire was signed that created regional peace for nearly two decades. The recent conflict in 2020 spells that Azerbaijan and Armenia are still far from any diplomatic closure. The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict may affect regional and world trade as the Caucasus region serves as an important transit route for oil and gas to the international market.
Historically speaking, Nagorno-Karabakh is the bordering region which has been claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two countries have pursued mediation efforts but no fruitful results have been achieved. Moreover, increased militarization and frequent ceasefire violations have also raised tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Several skirmishes took place between the two countries during July 2020. Cyber war was also initiated when on July 14 it was reported that Azerbaijani hackers attacked over thirty Armenian websites including the website of the Armenian government. US, Iran, Turkey, Russia and France were the first to react to the Nagorno-Karabakh clash. The US State Department contacted the two countries and advised them to cease their hostilities at the earliest. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh said, “Iran is closely monitoring the conflict with concern and calls for an immediate end to the conflict and the start of talks between the two countries. Tehran is ready to use all its capacities to help talks to start between the two sides.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Twitter said, “While I call on the Armenian people to take hold of their future against their leadership that is dragging them to catastrophe and those using it like puppets, we also call on the entire world to stand with Azerbaijan in their battle against invasion and cruelty.”
Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said, “The biggest obstacle to peace and stability in the Caucasus is the hostile stance of Armenia, and it must immediately turn back from this hostility that will send the region into fire. We will support our Azerbaijani brothers with all our means in their fight to protect their territorial integrity.” The Russian Foreign Minister said, “We are calling on the sides to immediately halt fire and begin talks to stabilize the situation.”. Russia has called to support Armenia while Turkey is siding with Azerbaijan. Iran, on the other hand, has a large Azeri minority, that could heighten the regional crisis to the next level and may blow the crisis out of proportion. Any increase in violence will most possibly disturb the trade and economic operations of the markets in the South Caucasus region. This will, directly and indirectly, destabilize the trade of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to world markets. Reports suggest that Azerbaijan produces nearly 800,000 barrels of oil per day and exports it to Central Asia and Europe. The Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Geneva in October 2017. The meeting was held under the auspices of the Minsk Group, an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Mediation efforts were initiated to end the problem. However, it seems both countries have gone back to the drawing board to look for possible solutions to end this conflict.
—The writer is contributing columnist, based in Karachi.
