Akbar Jan Marwat
THE hope that Russian mediated cease-fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan would hold, diminished on Sunday, when both countries accused the other of bombing its civilian centres. The agreement to pause fighting, in order to exchange prisoners and the bodies of the war dead as a result of a two-week armed conflict over Nagano-Karabakh, was reached between the two countries after marathon negotiations in Russia. In order to fully understand the Nagano Karabakh conflict, a brief understanding of the history, geography and ever-changing dynamics of the region would be in order. It would also be useful to shine some spot light on the policies of regional states towards the conflict, and how they try to influence or stymie the outcome of this conflict. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is over a disputed region of Nagarno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts, which are in de facto control of Nagarn-Karabakh or the self-declared Republic of Artsakh. These areas are, however, still internationally considered to be part of Azerbaijan. Nagano-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous region in South Caucuses. It has an Armenian majority but is located within the borders of Azerbaijan. The region has declared itself as autonomous since 1994 with Armenian support. The origins of the dispute over the ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan is historic. The modern phase of the conflict can, however, be traced to the early 20th century.
In 1920 the Azeri forces tried to take Nagorno-Karabakh militarily. But as that operation was ongoing, the Soviet Bolshevike forces took over Azerbaijan. The following year, Soviet Union captured over whelming Christian Armenia also in spite of Armenia’s secret hope that Soviet forces would be more forgiving towards them as compared to Muslim and Turkic Azerbaijan. After the take-over of the two countries, the issue of Nagorno-Karbakh remained in the cold storage for the next many decades. Stalin, perhaps, also did not take much interest in resolving the Nagarno-Karabakh conflict, because keeping the two countries which were now part of Soviet Union, at dagger’s – drawn, cemented Soviet Union’s position as the ultimate arbiter for the resolution of the conflict. After the disintegration of the (former) Soviet Union, hostilities broke out in the region again, and Azeri forces were pushed back from the Nagarno-Karabakh region. This status quo exists till date. Turkey has always been the number one allay of Azerbaijan. Turkey has not only provided diplomatic support but also substantial military aid to its ethnic cousins in Azerbaijan. This nationalistic outreach is in consonance with Erdogan’s nationalistic and Pan-Turkic policies and efforts to solidify Turkey’s position in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean.
Taking the case of Iran, one would have thought, Iran would be a natural supporter of largely Shia Azerbaijan against Christian Armenia. But Iran is not happy over Turkey’s entrenchment on its northern boarders. Another reason for Iran, not to be an enthusiastic supporter of Azerbaijan, is a domestic one. Iran has a population of 12 million Azeris, who have recently shown signs of civil unrest. Their complaint has generally been the marginalization of their language and identity by the Iranian people. This Azeri nationalism has been amplified by their contacts with their co-ethnic Azeris in Azerbaijan and media coverage from Turkey. Russia has, of course, a lot of interest in the region because of historical reasons. It considers both Azerbaijan and Armenia, to be in its historical sphere of influence. Although Russia has traditionally leaned towards Armenia in the conflict, a clear-cut winner in the conflict is also not favoured by Moscow in its strategic designs. Thus, like Iran Russia also seems to be in favour of status quo in the region.
Describing the policies of regional states towards the Nagarno-Karabakh conflict, it would be in the fitness of things, to say a few words about Pakistan’s policy towards the two countries also. Pakistan has since the inception of Azerbaijan, kept very warm and cordial relations with the fellow Muslim country and supported it, in its claim over the disputed region with Armenia. This could in part be due to the very close and brotherly relations of Pakistan with Turkey. Pakistan because of its close relationship with Azerbaijan has not even diplomatically recognized Armenia. The Nagarno-Karabakh conflict, like most world conflicts of the modern era is a very multi-dimensional and complexed one with roots in history. The self-serving policies of the countries of the region further confound the conflict and make it even less amenable to a peaceful resolution.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
